Regional Outlook — NSW1: Sunday 28 June 2026

The NSW spot price sits at $79.60/MWh against a total demand of 8,603 MW as of 06:25 AEST. That marks a significant softening from the morning peak, where prices climbed to $120.68/MWh at 17:00 AEST on a demand surge above 10,500 MW — typical winter morning behaviour driven by space heating. The overnight trough bottomed at $55.99/MWh (10:00 AEST), and the 24-hour range of $56–$121/MWh reflects a well-defined morning peak and gradual afternoon unwind. The current read sits roughly in line with the post-peak settling range of the past three hours.

The generation mix is led by black coal at 5,197 MW (approximately 72% of in-region output), with wind contributing 1,072 MW (15%), hydro at 660 MW (9%), battery discharge at 231 MW (3%), and gas OCGT at 53 MW (1%). Solar output is negligible at essentially 0 MW, consistent with overnight conditions. Total renewable penetration sits at 27.21%, down from an overnight high of 39.52% when demand — and therefore coal's baseload share — was lower. Carbon intensity is currently 0.6388 tCO2/MWh, having risen from a trough of 0.5312 tCO2/MWh around 10:00 AEST as coal dispatch increased to meet the morning demand ramp. Conditions today are cold (9.3°C, 100% cloud cover, heating demand at 8.7), with negligible solar potential through the morning and limited wind potential at 0.3, which constrains renewable output for the coming hours.

Predispatch forecasts point to prices lifting through the next evening peak, with a sharp ramp beginning around 16:00–16:30 AEST (06:00–06:30 UTC target times): $94.96/MWh at 16:00, $95.65/MWh at 16:30, accelerating to $106.50/MWh by 17:00, $130.27/MWh by 17:30, and peaking at $137.85–$138.00/MWh across the 18:00–18:30 AEST window. Prices are then forecast to ease rapidly — $92.85/MWh by 19:00 and below $60/MWh by 20:00 AEST — before collapsing into the overnight trough range of $43–$44/MWh between 10:00 and 13:30 AEST. The optimal load windows sit between 10:00–13:00 AEST (UTC 00:00–03:00), where average prices are forecast at $43–$48/MWh, saving up to $95/MWh against the evening peak. Demand-side participants and battery operators should position charge cycles accordingly.

No active market notices directly affect NSW dispatch today. The Armidale–Dumaresq 330kV line (N-ARDM_8C) returned to service on 27 June following an 11-day outage, removing the associated constraint sets. The Buronga B Bus 7118 220kV isolator constraint (N-BU_7118) affecting the VIC–SA Murraylink interconnector (V-S-MN