Regional Outlook — NSW1: Monday 29 June 2026
The NSW spot price sits at $105.10/MWh with total demand at 8,799 MW as of 06:25 AEST. That current price is broadly in line with the day's trading range but sits well below the morning peak, which hit $173.62/MWh at 17:45 AEST during the winter demand surge — demand topped out above 10,800 MW in that window before easing through the afternoon. The 24-hour price profile shows a clear pattern: a sustained $93–$110/MWh floor overnight, a sharp escalation through the 16:00–18:00 AEST morning peak, then a retreat to the $80–$100/MWh band through the midday trough (touching $73/MWh at 21:00 and 22:00 AEST) before climbing again into the current evening ramp. Grid stress scores 68/100 and price stability 38/100, reflecting this volatility.
The generation mix at the latest interval is dominated by black coal at 6,075 MW (70% of total identified generation), with wind contributing 1,308 MW (15%), hydro 1,186 MW (14%), gas OCGT at 213 MW (2.5%), battery at 33 MW, and solar negligible at effectively 0 MW — consistent with a winter overnight period. Renewable penetration sits at 28.66% and carbon intensity is 0.6222 tCO2/MWh. Intensity has traded between 0.57 and 0.65 tCO2/MWh across the past 24 hours, with the lower readings coinciding with stronger wind output during the overnight and early morning periods (reaching 0.5691 tCO2/MWh around 11:25 AEST). Current conditions in Sydney are 11°C with 82% cloud cover, confirming zero solar contribution and a heating demand signal of 7 — consistent with elevated baseload requirements throughout today.
Predispatch forecasts point to a further price lift through this morning's peak. Prices are forecast to reach $125.35/MWh by 08:30 AEST, ease slightly to $121.10/MWh in the 08:00–09:30 AEST window, then push to $134.89/MWh at 20:30 AEST before moderating back through the midday period — bottoming near $66.94/MWh at 03:00 AEST tomorrow afternoon (16:00 UTC). The 14:30–02:00 AEST window (UTC 04:30–16:00) represents the lowest-cost load opportunity of today's cycle, with the 03:00 AEST slot (UTC 16:00) forecast at $66.94/MWh and the 02:00–03:00 AEST band averaging around $74/MWh. Evening prices re-escalate toward $97–$98/MWh from 04:30 AEST onward as the next morning demand build commences.
Two active network notices are relevant to NSW today. The Balranald–Buronga X3 220kV line outage (constraint set N-BABU) has been rescheduled to complete at 01:00 AEST 30 June, meaning the restriction on the V-S-MNSP1 Murraylink interconnector flow is still active this morning.