Carbon Forecast: Tuesday 30 June 2026
South Australia is the standout low-intensity region on the NEM right now, sitting at just 0.011 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 97.79% — wind is carrying 1,856 MW with only a token 0.11 MW of gas OCGT online and 42 MW of gas CCGT providing residual support. Tasmania is at 0.000 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable generation from 954 MW of hydro and 230 MW of wind. These two regions represent the cleanest carbon windows available on the grid at this hour. Victoria sits at 0.582 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 52.23%, where 3,200 MW of wind is running alongside 2,970 MW of brown coal — the wind contribution has driven intensity down from above 0.94 tCO2/MWh recorded in the overnight period.
NSW and Queensland are the highest-intensity regions. NSW is at 0.655 tCO2/MWh with only 25.44% renewable penetration — 5,355 MW of black coal dominates the stack, with wind (834 MW) and hydro (731 MW) providing the bulk of the renewable contribution and solar negligible at 113 MW on a winter evening. Queensland is marginally higher at 0.677 tCO2/MWh with 21.23% renewables; 4,910 MW of black coal and 475 MW of gas OCGT are the primary sources, with wind at 1,071 MW and solar offline at this hour. Both regions show intensity has been elevated through the afternoon and evening as solar output dropped away from its midday contribution.
The trajectory through the remainder of today is unfavourable for carbon-sensitive scheduling in NSW and Queensland. With no solar generation available until after sunrise (roughly 06:30–07:00 AEST), and wind in both regions running well below their daytime peaks, intensity is unlikely to ease materially before the pre-dawn trough. The lowest-intensity window in NSW over the past 24 hours occurred around 08:00–09:30 AEST when wind was stronger and solar was ramping — intensity dipped to 0.568 tCO2/MWh. Carbon-sensitive industrial loads in those regions should target the 07:00–11:00 AEST window tomorrow when solar begins contributing and wind conditions are typically more favourable. SA and Tasmania remain viable low-intensity options throughout the day, with SA's wind resource sustaining near-zero intensity regardless of solar availability.