Carbon Forecast: Saturday 27 June 2026

NEM carbon intensity at 06:30 AEST sits at opposite extremes across the five regions. Tasmania records 0.00 tCO2/MWh on 100% renewables — hydro (987 MW) and wind (125 MW) covering the entire load with no thermal plant dispatched. South Australia is at 0.02 tCO2/MWh with 95% renewable penetration, driven by 1,539 MW of wind and just 82 MW of gas CCGT providing marginal firming. At the other end, Victoria carries the highest intensity on the mainland at 0.96 tCO2/MWh with only 20% renewables — 4,124 MW of brown coal dominates the stack, supplemented by 1,055 MW of wind and 136 MW of gas OCGT. NSW sits at 0.64 tCO2/MWh (27% renewables), with 4,728 MW of black coal as the primary source alongside 1,058 MW of wind and 713 MW of hydro. Queensland is at 0.63 tCO2/MWh (26% renewables), where 4,461 MW of black coal anchors the stack with 1,461 MW of wind, 643 MW of gas OCGT, and 222 MW of battery discharge rounding it out.

SA has been in its lowest-intensity window since approximately 23:30 AEST last night, when wind output pushed intensity below 0.03 tCO2/MWh and renewable penetration above 94%. That window is current and ongoing — intensity has held between 0.024 and 0.028 tCO2/MWh for the past seven hours. Given this is a winter Sunday with no solar contribution and strong wind persisting, SA's near-zero intensity is likely to continue through the morning unless wind output softens or an interconnector flow reversal changes the net position. Carbon-sensitive loads in SA should treat the entire current period as a green window.

For NSW and Queensland, the trajectory through today is less favourable than it might appear. Both regions saw their overnight intensity dip moderately — NSW touched 0.57 tCO2/MWh around 09:00 AEST, QLD reached 0.51 tCO2/MWh near the same time — but both have since firmed back toward 0.63–0.64 tCO2/MWh as coal dispatch held firm and solar contribution remains negligible on this winter day. Without meaningful solar generation until at least late spring, midday does not offer the carbon dip that summer intervals provide. The best NSW and QLD windows for carbon-sensitive scheduling today will be the pre-dawn overnight trough (already passed) or any period where wind output strengthens — watch wind dispatch closely for opportunistic windows, but baseline intensity is unlikely to drop below 0.57 tCO2/MWh for the remainder of the day. Victoria offers no near-term relief; brown coal output is stable and wind at 20% renewable penetration is insufficient to materially shift the 0.96 tCO2/MWh reading across the evening peak period ahead.