Carbon Forecast: Friday 26 June 2026

Tasmania carries zero carbon intensity at 0.00 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable generation — hydro at 1,206 MW and a small wind contribution — and has maintained that position across every interval in today's data. South Australia sits at 0.21 tCO2/MWh with 62% renewables, wind supplying 948 MW against a gas mix of 576 MW OCGT and CCGT combined. At the other end of the spectrum, Victoria is at 1.07 tCO2/MWh with renewables at just 6% — brown coal is running 4,111 MW and gas OCGT a further 654 MW, with wind contributing only 272 MW. NSW and Queensland are closely matched at 0.64 tCO2/MWh and 0.64 tCO2/MWh respectively, both with renewable penetration in the mid-to-upper 20s percent; NSW is drawing on 5,801 MW of black coal plus 1,135 MW of hydro and 1,073 MW of wind, while Queensland's 4,743 MW of black coal is accompanied by 1,509 MW of wind, 136 MW of hydro, and 138 MW of battery dispatch.

The trajectory through today tells a clear story. In SA, intensity fell progressively through the afternoon as wind strengthened, reaching a trough around 0.20 tCO2/MWh in the 03:00–04:30 AEST window (18:00–19:30 UTC) before edging marginally higher. The most favourable windows for carbon-sensitive loads in SA were in that afternoon-to-early-evening band, when renewables peaked at 65–66%. NSW saw its lowest intensity — around 0.51 tCO2/MWh — in the early hours of the morning (10:00–11:00 AEST), when overnight wind output lifted renewables to around 40%; intensity has since risen as morning and daytime demand increased coal dispatch. Victoria's intensity has been largely range-bound between 0.84 and 1.07 tCO2/MWh all day, with wind generation too low to create a meaningful green window at any point. Queensland's best window was also in the pre-dawn hours around 09:00–11:00 AEST, when wind and hydro pushed renewables above 40% and intensity dipped to 0.51 tCO2/MWh, before rising sharply through the business day as coal output lifted to serve peak demand.

For the remainder of today, SA remains the standout option for carbon-sensitive scheduling on the mainland, with intensity holding in the 0.20–0.22 tCO2/MWh range through the current evening period and wind continuing to run strongly at 948 MW. Queensland and NSW intensity is likely to ease modestly overnight as demand falls and wind picks up relative to thermal output, but neither will approach SA levels. Victoria's intensity is unlikely to shift materially until wind output recovers significantly. Operators with flexible loads across the interconnected mainland should continue to prioritise SA scheduling windows, noting that inter-regional flows mean SA's low-intensity surplus does influence neighbouring grids at the margin.