Carbon Forecast: Thursday 25 June 2026

Tasmania sits at 0.00 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable penetration — hydro at 1,127 MW and wind at 52 MW are covering all regional load with nothing left for gas. That is the cleanest grid on the NEM by a wide margin and has been at or near zero intensity since around 06:30 AEST. South Australia is next at 0.26 tCO2/MWh with 54% renewables; wind is generating 957 MW against gas OCGT at 406 MW and CCGT at 434 MW, keeping intensity well below the mainland average despite zero solar output this evening.

NSW and Queensland sit in a similar band at 0.62 tCO2/MWh and 0.63 tCO2/MWh respectively, both with renewables in the 25–27% range. In NSW, black coal dominates at 5,990 MW, with hydro (1,265 MW) and wind (939 MW) the main offsets; OCGT is elevated at 911 MW. Queensland's mix is comparable — black coal at 4,940 MW, wind at 1,427 MW, and battery discharge running at 432 MW. Victoria is the highest-intensity region on the NEM at 1.08 tCO2/MWh with renewables at just 5.5%; brown coal is generating 4,088 MW and OCGT is at 686 MW, with wind contributing only 91 MW and solar at zero. Victoria's intensity has been climbing since around 13:00 AEST and is near its peak for today.

Looking at the trajectory across today's data, the clearest low-intensity windows have already passed for most mainland regions. SA recorded its best intensity readings between 01:00 and 05:30 AEST (as low as 0.17 tCO2/MWh at 13:30 AEST off elevated wind) and again in the early afternoon around 14:30–15:30 AEST when renewables reached 59–60%. NSW and QLD both saw their lowest intensity in the overnight period (00:30–02:30 AEST) when demand was soft and renewable share ran above 38–50%. The evening peak now through to midnight will keep NSW, QLD, and VIC intensity elevated as solar is absent and dispatchable thermal carries load.

For carbon-sensitive loads, Tasmania offers a continuous green window around the clock today. SA remains the best mainland option, with wind output holding above 950 MW through the evening and intensity likely to stay in the 0.25–0.30 tCO2/MWh range overnight. NSW and QLD will not see meaningful intensity relief until post-midnight when demand eases and overnight wind output builds. Victoria's intensity is unlikely to improve materially until morning when brown coal plant is backed off against rising wind; any green window there is unlikely before 07:00–09:00 AEST tomorrow.