Carbon Forecast: Wednesday 24 June 2026

NEM-wide carbon intensity at 06:25 AEST sits at sharply divergent levels across regions. Tasmania is at 0.00 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable penetration, driven entirely by hydro (1,285 MW) and a small wind contribution (22 MW) — it has held at or near zero for the majority of overnight intervals. South Australia is the next lowest at 0.29 tCO2/MWh with 48% renewables, where wind (731 MW) is the dominant source alongside gas OCGT and CCGT balancing. NSW sits at 0.63 tCO2/MWh with 24% renewables — black coal at 6,400 MW anchors the grid, with hydro (1,444 MW) and wind (868 MW) as the main low-emission contributors. Queensland is effectively level with NSW at 0.63 tCO2/MWh, 26% renewables, with black coal (4,887 MW) and wind (1,491 MW) as the two largest sources. Victoria is the highest-intensity region on the NEM at 1.02 tCO2/MWh with just 7.5% renewables — brown coal (3,700 MW) dominates, supplemented by gas OCGT (1,007 MW), while wind (91 MW) and hydro (62 MW) contribute marginally at this hour.

The trajectory through today's data tells a clear story for the daytime period. SA showed its lowest intensity window between approximately 14:00–18:30 AEST (00:00–08:30 UTC), reaching a floor of 0.26 tCO2/MWh at 55% renewable penetration as wind generation peaked in the early afternoon. That window has now passed and SA is climbing back as evening demand rises. Victoria's intensity peaked at 1.09 tCO2/MWh through the 13:00–19:00 AEST range with renewables collapsing to under 5%, and is now marginally easing to 1.02 tCO2/MWh — the recovery is slow and largely battery-driven (230 MW discharging) rather than a shift in the underlying fuel mix. NSW and Queensland both experienced their lowest overnight intensity around 03:00–05:00 AEST when demand was lightest and wind was strongest relative to total load, with NSW touching 0.51 tCO2/MWh and Queensland reaching 0.46 tCO2/MWh in that window.

For carbon-sensitive loads scheduling today, Tasmania remains the standout — intensity has been effectively zero since 01:00 AEST and there is no signal in the data suggesting that changes. SA's best window for the remaining day will depend on overnight wind recovery; if wind holds above 700 MW against lower overnight demand, intensity could return toward 0.28–0.30 tCO2/MWh in the post-midnight period. For NSW and Queensland, the next low-intensity opportunity is the pre-dawn trough (roughly 02:00–05:00 AEST Friday), when coal dispatch typically eases and wind penetration peaks as a share of reduced overnight load. Victoria presents no near-term low-intensity window given its current mix — brown coal output is running flat through the evening and wind capacity online is negligible at this hour.