Carbon Forecast: Monday 29 June 2026

Tasmania is running at 0.00 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable generation — hydro at 983 MW and wind at 128 MW covering the entire region's output. South Australia is the next lowest at 0.27 tCO2/MWh, with wind (683 MW) and battery (6 MW) covering 54% of demand and gas OCGT and CCGT making up the balance. These two regions represent the clearest options for carbon-sensitive scheduling right now.

NSW sits at 0.62 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 29%, driven by black coal dominating at 6,075 MW while wind contributes 1,308 MW and hydro 1,186 MW. Queensland is at 0.61 tCO2/MWh — black coal at 4,932 MW and wind at 1,828 MW account for the majority of output, with battery dispatch (315 MW) and gas OCGT (500 MW) filling demand. Victoria carries the highest intensity on the NEM at 0.95 tCO2/MWh; brown coal at 4,083 MW constitutes the clear majority of generation, with wind at 976 MW and gas OCGT at 404 MW rounding out the mix. Renewable penetration in Victoria has fallen to 19%, its weakest point in today's data, reflecting the evening demand ramp without solar contribution.

Across the NEM, the pattern is consistent with a winter evening profile: solar is effectively zero in all regions, removing what modest midday contribution it provided. Victoria's intensity has risen sharply from around 0.70 tCO2/MWh at 07:00 AEST to 0.95 tCO2/MWh now, tracking the demand peak. SA's intensity spiked mid-morning — peaking near 0.42 tCO2/MWh around 09:00–09:30 AEST — before wind output recovered through the afternoon to bring it back to current levels.

For carbon-sensitive loads, the lowest-intensity windows today have already passed in SA (the overnight period between 07:00–09:00 AEST when wind was near 95%) and TAS remains consistently at or near zero throughout the 24-hour period, making it the only firm low-intensity option for the balance of the day. In NSW and QLD, intensity is unlikely to improve materially before morning; the next potential softening point is the post-peak period after 21:00–22:00 AEST as evening demand eases and coal dispatch moderates. Victoria's trajectory suggests intensity will remain above 0.90 tCO2/MWh until well into the overnight period. Carbon-aware schedulers should prioritise TAS interconnect-sourced loads or SA wind periods; mainland eastern states offer limited abatement opportunity until at least dawn.