Carbon Forecast: Monday 22 June 2026

At 06:25 AEST, NEM-wide carbon intensity spans a wide range across regions. Tasmania sits at 0.00 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewables — hydro (795 MW) and wind (413 MW) comprising the entire dispatch. South Australia is next at 0.46 tCO2/MWh (18.7% renewables), with gas OCGT (543 MW) and gas CCGT (531 MW) making up the bulk of supply alongside 176 MW of wind. NSW sits at 0.68 tCO2/MWh (22.1% renewables), driven by 6,895 MW of black coal against 1,265 MW of hydro, 441 MW of battery, and 293 MW of wind. Queensland reads 0.65 tCO2/MWh (25.3% renewables) with 5,254 MW of black coal offset by 1,107 MW of battery discharge, 473 MW of wind, and 303 MW of hydro. Victoria carries the highest intensity at 0.89 tCO2/MWh (20.5% renewables), with 4,200 MW of brown coal and 856 MW of gas OCGT alongside 1,236 MW of wind.

The pattern through today's data is consistent with a winter weekday profile. All mainland regions tracked their overnight trough between roughly 10:00–13:00 AEST (00:00–03:00 UTC), when wind output lifted renewable penetration into the 50–62% range in QLD and NSW and SA reached lows near 0.25 tCO2/MWh. From the pre-dawn period intensity rose sharply as thermal plant ramped into the morning peak, and it now sits near or above its intraday high across all mainland regions. Solar is effectively zero across all regions, consistent with the winter solstice period and the pre-sunrise interval.

For carbon-sensitive loads, the lowest-intensity windows today are already behind us for mainland regions. The overnight period from approximately 10:00–13:00 AEST delivered the best conditions: NSW hit 0.37 tCO2/MWh, QLD reached 0.33 tCO2/MWh, and SA touched 0.25 tCO2/MWh. Through the remainder of today, intensity is expected to hold elevated as winter evening demand builds — historically the 07:00–09:00 AEST evening peak period sees the worst mainland readings, with NSW trending toward 0.75–0.77 tCO2/MWh and QLD toward 0.73–0.75 tCO2/MWh based on today's trajectory. Tasmania remains the exception, holding at effectively zero throughout the day. Operators with schedule flexibility should target post-midnight AEST for the next low-intensity window on all mainland regions.