Regional Outlook — SA1: Saturday 20 June 2026
The SA spot price sits at $90.58/MWh with total demand at 1,408 MW as of 06:30 AEST. That current level is modest relative to the sustained pressure seen through the morning peak, where prices repeatedly breached $150–$260/MWh between 08:00 and 12:30 AEST, with an intraday high of $259.93/MWh at 18:30 AEST. The overnight trough bottomed near $37–$42/MWh between 13:00 and 14:30 AEST (UTC+9:30), before a sharp morning ramp drove sustained elevation. The 24-hour volume-weighted average sits materially above the current price, reflecting that extended elevated period.
The current generation mix is gas-dominated: GAS_CCGT is contributing 504.64 MW and GAS_OCGT 276.30 MW, together accounting for roughly 55% of served load when interconnector flows are considered. Wind is generating 82.72 MW and solar 0 MW — winter solstice means no solar output at this hour. Battery discharge stands at 3.94 MW. Renewable penetration is 9.99% and carbon intensity sits at 0.492 tCO2/MWh, the highest point recorded in the available dataset. For context, carbon intensity was as low as 0.141 tCO2/MWh at 13:30 AEST (UTC+9:30 equivalent) when wind was carrying over 75% of load — the current reading reflects minimal wind output and full thermal commitment. Today's weather confirms why: wind speed at 1.7 km/h, cloud cover 23%, temperature 6°C with a heating demand signal of 12.
Predispatch forecasts point to a significant price escalation through this morning. SA prices are forecast to lift from $93.75/MWh at 07:00 AEST to $123.22/MWh by 09:00 AEST, before the morning ramp drives a sustained elevated band: $139.56/MWh at 18:00 AEST, $173.76/MWh at 18:30 AEST, peaking around $199.98/MWh at 19:30 AEST. Prices are then forecast to hold in the $120–$165/MWh range through most of the day before easing toward $116/MWh by 04:00 AEST tomorrow. Lowest-cost windows for flexible load are forecast between 12:00–13:30 AEST (UTC equivalent 02:00–03:30) at approximately $72/MWh and 14:30–15:30 AEST at around $71/MWh — both representing savings exceeding $125/MWh versus the forecast daytime peak.
On market notices, two items are directly relevant to SA. An active inter-regional transfer notice (MN 144289) confirms the Murraylink control outage — which constrained import capability into SA through part of the trading day — was resolved at 22:25 hrs, with constraint set I-CTRL_ISSUE_ML now revoked; Murraylink transfer capability is restored. A separate notice (MN 144283) remains active regarding a rating change on the X3 Balranald–Buronga 220 kV line in NSW, which invoked constraints on the V-SA and