NEM Overview: Saturday 20 June 2026

Spot prices across the NEM sit in the $70–$99/MWh range at 06:25 AEST, with SA1 the highest at $99.44/MWh and Tasmania the lowest at $70.24/MWh. The $29/MWh spread between those two regions is notable given that Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is carrying zero flow right now — Tasmania's hydro-dominated grid is generating 1,082 MW of hydro plus 15 MW of wind but exporting nothing to Victoria. NSW sits at $91.05/MWh on demand of 7,082 MW, with VIC at $81.87/MWh on 4,865 MW and QLD at $83.73/MWh on 5,627 MW. The V-SA interconnector is at its export limit of 559 MW flowing into SA, and V-S-MNSP1 (Murraylink) is similarly at its binding export ceiling of 72 MW into SA — both caps reflect SA's reliance on imports to supplement local gas generation given this morning's light wind output. NSW-QLD1 is flowing 469 MW southbound into NSW and is binding on its import limit.

NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 33.6% per the gridIQ score, though the regional picture is uneven. Tasmania is running at 100% renewable (carbon intensity 0.00 tCO2/MWh) while all other regions are materially lower: NSW at 16.9%, QLD at 10.0%, SA at 9.9%, and VIC at 13.8%. It's the middle of the night on the winter solstice, so solar is contributing essentially nothing across the board — NSW has just 50 MW, QLD 0.25 MW, and SA and VIC zero. Wind is carrying the renewable load where it exists: 688 MW in VIC, 491 MW in QLD, 286 MW in NSW, and a thin 84 MW in SA. VIC's carbon intensity of 1.01 tCO2/MWh reflects the 4,240 MW of brown coal on the system. Grid stress scores 67.8/100 and price stability 67.5/100, consistent with the binding interconnector conditions and compressed but not extreme price spreads.

Two active market notices warrant attention today. Directlink (N-Q-MNSP1) controls remain unavailable until further notice — the constraint set I-CTRL_ISSUE_TE is active, limiting the operability of that NSW-QLD interconnector, though the link itself is currently flowing 33 MW southbound and is non-binding. Separately, TARONG#4 was declared non-conforming at 03:25–03:45 AEST at −33 MW, meaning the unit was generating below its dispatch target; it is flagged as active but covers a brief early-morning window. The previously active Murraylink control issue is resolved — that constraint set was revoked at 22:25 last night. A forward note: a forecast LOR1 in Tasmania for 25 June (08:00–09:00) remains live, with reserves forecast at 530 MW against a 580 MW requirement, so watch for any hydro storage or Bass Strait import updates through the week.

Heading into today's daytime trading, solar will return from around 07:30 and should contribute meaningfully in NSW given forecast clear skies and a