Commodity Demand — VIC1: Saturday 20 June 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at $81.87/MWh with demand at 4,865 MW as of 6:25 AEST — a relatively modest level consistent with the post-evening-peak trough on a winter Sunday. That demand figure represents a sharp retreat from today's peak of 7,074 MW reached around 18:10 AEST, when prices held in the $82–$92/MWh range as the market absorbed morning heating load across the full commercial and residential base. The price-demand relationship through the day has been notably inelastic in the upper band: once demand cleared roughly 6,500 MW from around 16:30–21:30 AEST, spot prices locked into a tight $80–$93/MWh corridor with little volatility, suggesting the marginal dispatch stack was relatively flat at those output levels. The floor was set during the pre-dawn trough around 14:10–14:45 AEST (4:10–4:45 UTC), where demand dipped to 5,145–5,240 MW and prices touched $37–$38/MWh before morning load ramp commenced.

The forward price curve signals a materially different profile for today's trading day. Prices are forecast to hold around $80–$91/MWh through the 07:00–09:30 AEST window before escalating sharply into the morning demand peak: the 08:30 AEST interval carries a forecast of $169.69/MWh, with the 09:30 AEST interval reaching $183.85/MWh — the highest point in the outlook. This reflects the winter weekday demand ramp pattern, where space heating load across residential and commercial sectors drives Victoria's steepest demand gradient. Prices remain elevated across the full business day, with forecasts sustaining above $100/MWh from roughly 16:30 AEST through to at least 04:00 AEST tomorrow, consistent with sustained high demand through the afternoon and evening heating peaks.

Weather conditions reinforce this outlook. The current temperature is 10.5°C with a heating demand index of 7.5 and near-zero solar potential, and today's forecast maximum reaches only 13.5°C under 22% average cloud cover. Wind potential is rated at 0.3 — low but not negligible — and the current generation mix shows wind contributing 688 MW against brown coal at 4,240 MW and gas OCGT at 383 MW, with solar at zero. Renewable penetration is 13.75% and carbon intensity is 1.01 tCO2/MWh, reflecting the overnight mix with minimal wind and no solar. The overnight low demand window between 02:00 and 05:00 AEST represents the clearest cost-minimisation opportunity ahead of the morning price surge, with forecast prices in the $64–$73/MWh range — roughly $110/MWh below the anticipated 09:30 AEST peak.