Regional Outlook — VIC1: Friday 19 June 2026

The spot price sits at $57.48/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 4,979 MW — well below the overnight peak of around 7,388 MW recorded during the morning ramp. The 24-hour price profile tells a clear story: prices near zero or negative through much of the early overnight period (06:30–10:30 UTC, roughly 16:30–20:30 AEST Friday) before climbing sharply into the pre-dawn morning peak, with the 06:30–10:00 AEST window sustaining $70–$81/MWh as heating demand surged on an overcast 11°C morning. Prices have since eased through the afternoon as demand pulled back. The current read is broadly in line with the day's $55–$65/MWh mid-afternoon range.

The generation mix at 06:00 AEST is dominated by brown coal at 4,224 MW, followed by wind at 2,358 MW, gas (OCGT) at 103 MW, hydro at 51 MW, and battery at 7 MW. Solar is contributing 0 MW — consistent with the 95% cloud cover and a solar potential score of zero. Total renewable penetration sits at 35.82%, with carbon intensity at 0.7743 tCO2/MWh. That's a meaningful step up from the 0.53–0.57 tCO2/MWh range recorded around 07:00–10:00 AEST overnight, when wind was carrying renewable penetration above 50%. The shift reflects wind output holding steady while brown coal dispatch has increased to cover the loss of solar across the winter day and to meet elevated thermal load driven by heating demand. Wind potential remains moderate at 4.3 on current conditions.

Predispatch forecasts point to a significant price escalation through tonight's evening peak. From the current $57.48/MWh, prices are forecast to lift to $62.82/MWh by 07:00 AEST, then accelerate to the $79–$92/MWh range between 07:30 and 09:00 AEST, holding near $92/MWh through to 09:00 AEST before sustaining above $86–$100/MWh from 18:00–22:30 AEST. The peak forecast of $100.27/MWh targets the 22:30 AEST interval. This profile is a standard winter Saturday evening demand ramp — low solar throughout, elevated heating load, and no material demand moderation. Flexible load and battery operators should note the sustained high-price window across 18:00–23:00 AEST. The lowest-cost load windows today are forecast between 13:00 and 16:00 AEST (roughly $50–$54/MWh).

Two active market notices warrant attention for Victorian participants. AEMO has issued a non-conformance notice for YWPS4 (Yallourn, Unit 4) covering a brief deviation on 18 June — a minor operational flag with no ongoing dispatch impact flagged. A forthcoming MSATS outage under CHG0108153 is scheduled for 24 June 2026 from 13:00–17:00 AEST (pre-production environment only), covering the Shortening the Settlement Cycle Release 1 change; participants should note MSATS, B2B transactions, NM