Regional Outlook — SA1: Friday 19 June 2026
The SA spot price sits at $71.54/MWh against total demand of 1,428.5 MW as of 06:30 AEST. That current price is broadly consistent with the day's trading band, though the overnight session told a markedly different story — prices collapsed to negative or near-zero territory between roughly 07:15 and 08:40 AEST before climbing sharply through the pre-dawn hours into the $50–$85/MWh range that has dominated today's trading. The 24-hour period opened with renewable penetration above 97% and carbon intensity as low as 0.011 tCO2/MWh, before morning demand ramp drove gas dispatch higher and pushed intensity up to a daytime peak around 0.27 tCO2/MWh near 09:30 AEST. Current carbon intensity sits at 0.2101 tCO2/MWh with renewables contributing 64.3% of generation.
The current generation mix totals approximately 872 MW of metered output: wind is generating 530.35 MW, gas OCGT is at 191.45 MW, gas CCGT at 119.86 MW, and battery storage is contributing 30.35 MW on a net dispatch basis. Solar output is zero, consistent with the 06:30 AEST timestamp and today's winter morning conditions — Adelaide is sitting at 10.4°C with light winds at 12.3 km/h and 37% cloud cover. Today's outlook shows a max of 13.6°C, partial cloud, and low average wind potential (1.1 out of a possible higher range), which will constrain both wind and rooftop solar contributions relative to the overnight period and limit any material downward pressure on prices from variable renewables during daylight hours.
Predispatch forecasts signal a clear upward price trajectory from here. Prices are forecast to lift through $89/MWh by 07:30 AEST, breach $100/MWh around 08:30–09:00 AEST, and remain above that level through the late morning and into early afternoon, peaking at $113.86/MWh at 22:30 AEST (12:30 UTC). The sustained period above $100/MWh forecast between approximately 09:00 and 13:30 AEST reflects the combination of winter morning demand, limited solar contribution, and relatively subdued wind potential for today. Prices are forecast to ease back toward the $65–$80/MWh range through the afternoon and evening. Flexible load operators and battery operators should note the optimal consumption windows identified in the overnight through early morning periods — the cheapest forecast window is 13:30–14:30 AEST at around $51/MWh average, representing a saving of approximately $63/MWh against today's expected peak.
One active market notice warrants attention: AEMO has issued notice 144282 advising a MSATS outage from 13:00–17:00 AEST on 24 June 2026 (pre-production environment) as part of CHG0108153 — the Shortening the Settlement Cycle (SSC Release 1) implementation. NMI Discovery, CDR, CDP, B2B screens, and meter data processing will be unavailable during that window in pre-production. Separately, a Forecast LOR1 notice (144279) remains active for the TAS region on 25 June between 08: