NEM Overview: Friday 19 June 2026
As of 06:30 AEST, NEM-wide spot prices are orderly across the eastern regions, ranging from $27.20/MWh in Tasmania to $80.72/MWh in Queensland, with NSW at $79.00/MWh and SA at $71.54/MWh. Victoria is the cheapest mainland region at $57.48/MWh, a $23/MWh discount to NSW driven by 2,357 MW of wind generation keeping local supply well-covered. The VIC1–NSW1 interconnector is flowing at its export limit of 729.56 MW into NSW, and both V-SA interconnectors are also binding at their export caps — SA is drawing 591 MW from Victoria plus 54 MW via the Murraylink MNSP — which explains the SA price sitting above Victoria despite reasonable local wind output (530 MW, 64.3% renewable penetration). WA sits at $106.80/MWh, the highest reading across all regions. Tasmania continues to price at a steep discount, with hydro and wind covering the island's entire 1,078 MW load and 196.69 MW flowing north to Victoria via Basslink, well within the 309.20 MW export limit.
NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 43.2% on the gridIQ composite score. Tasmania is at 100% renewable, SA at 64.3%, Victoria at 35.8%, NSW at 26.6%, and Queensland at 10.9% — the latter anchored by 4,540 MW of black coal and 592 MW of gas OCGT with wind contributing only 454 MW and solar negligible at this hour. Total NEM demand across the five regions stands at approximately 20,799 MW, consistent with a cool Saturday morning — temperatures range from 6.3°C in Hobart to 14.3°C in Brisbane, with heating demand elevated across all regions. No solar is generating in any region at this interval, as expected pre-dawn. Grid stress registers at 58.6/100 on the composite score, reflecting the binding interconnector constraints rather than any demand spike.
The active notice warranting attention is a Forecast LOR1 in Tasmania for 25 June, 08:00–09:00 AEST, where forecast reserve (530 MW) falls 50 MW short of the 580 MW requirement. With Basslink currently exporting 197 MW to Victoria, any reduction in Tasmanian hydro availability or uplift in mainland demand next Wednesday morning could tighten that margin further. Separately, an MSATS outage is scheduled for 24 June 13:00–17:00 AEST as part of the Settlement Cycle Shortening Release 1 deployment — participants should note that meter data processing, B2B transactions, NMI Discovery, and CDR will all be unavailable during that window. System strength constraints remain active in North Queensland following the update to Q-NIL constraint equations on 18 June, with Powerlink's revised limit advice (Transfer Limit Advice V18) now in effect.
Today's outlook is stable. Saturday demand will be lower than weekday peaks, and NSW conditions are clear with a forecast high of 18.9°C, which limits heating-driven demand growth. Victoria faces persistent cloud cover (71% average today) suppressing any solar contribution, but the 2,300+ MW wind fleet is operating well. SA wind is forecast to ease through the day as wind potential drops to 1.1 average, which may w