Carbon Forecast: Friday 19 June 2026

Tasmania sits at 0.00 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable penetration as hydro (912 MW) and wind (285 MW) cover the entire regional load — that position has held consistently since mid-morning AEST. South Australia is the next cleanest at 0.23 tCO2/MWh with 59% renewables, wind supplying 521 MW alongside gas OCGT (191 MW) and CCGT (177 MW) firming the balance. NSW is at 0.66 tCO2/MWh on 24% renewables, with 5,091 MW of black coal dominating the stack; wind contributes 1,002 MW and hydro 620 MW but neither is sufficient to meaningfully dilute coal's emissions signal. Victoria sits at 0.77 tCO2/MWh on 36% renewables — 4,120 MW of brown coal anchors the dispatch stack, with 2,341 MW of wind providing the bulk of renewable output. Queensland is the highest-intensity region at 0.75 tCO2/MWh, with 4,537 MW of black coal and 607 MW of gas OCGT holding renewable penetration to just 12% — wind at 381 MW and hydro at 302 MW are the only material clean sources, with solar negligible at this hour.

Looking at today's trajectory, the pattern across mainland regions is consistent with a winter Saturday profile: intensity was at its lowest in the overnight window (roughly 07:00–11:00 AEST for NSW and QLD, where wind was stronger relative to demand), then climbed through the afternoon as demand lifted and solar output remained minimal given the winter solstice proximity. NSW intensity peaked near 0.60–0.64 tCO2/MWh between 13:00 and 21:30 AEST. Victoria's intensity peaked above 0.85 tCO2/MWh during the morning ramp (05:30–09:00 AEST) before easing to the current 0.77 as wind output improved. SA's best window was overnight, where intensity sat at or near 0.01 tCO2/MWh through to around 07:00 AEST with renewables above 97%.

For carbon-sensitive loads, the most actionable windows remaining today are limited. TAS1 remains at zero intensity and is the clear choice for any flexible load with Basslink access. SA1 continues to offer sub-0.25 tCO2/MWh intensity through the evening, though the overnight wind window that drove sub-0.02 readings has passed. On the mainland, no further solar uplift is expected today — it is past 06:30 AEST and generation data confirms solar is at or near zero across all regions. Wind output in NSW and VIC is the primary variable; the current 1,002 MW NSW wind and 2,341 MW VIC wind readings are the key levers, and any softening will push those regions' intensity higher into the evening demand peak. Carbon-sensitive scheduling in NSW and QLD should have been front-loaded to overnight or early morning; the remainder of today offers no structural improvement in those regions without a material wind uplift.