Regional Outlook — SA1: Thursday 18 June 2026
The spot price in South Australia sits at -$0.09/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,541 MW. That near-zero negative price is the culmination of an extended run of sub-zero dispatch intervals that dominated most of the overnight period — prices troughed as low as -$20/MWh repeatedly between 14:00 and 15:30 AEST, reflecting strong wind output well in excess of local demand during those hours. The 24-hour price profile shows a clear intraday arc: a sustained morning peak band of $9–$11/MWh from roughly 18:00–21:30 AEST, a brief mid-morning spike to $17.40/MWh at 21:05 AEST, then a collapse into negative territory through the afternoon and evening as demand eased and wind held firm.
Wind is generating 1,725.77 MW, accounting for the overwhelming majority of the dispatch stack. Gas CCGT contributes 40 MW, gas OCGT 0.11 MW, and battery storage is essentially idle at 0.06 MW. Solar output is zero, consistent with winter pre-dawn conditions at this hour. Renewable penetration sits at 97.73%, with carbon intensity at 0.0111 tCO2/MWh — one of the lowest readings in the 24-hour history provided, which itself has remained well below 0.065 tCO2/MWh throughout. The current 13.2°C temperature, 82% cloud cover, and 23.8 km/h winds confirm the meteorological driver: a cold, overcast, windy winter morning is sustaining wind output while suppressing both solar generation and cooling demand.
The predispatch forecast signals a material price step-change beginning around 06:30–07:00 AEST. Prices are forecast to lift from $5.34/MWh at 07:00 AEST to $53.81/MWh by 08:30 AEST, then sustain a $62–$81/MWh band from 09:00 through to approximately 19:00 AEST, peaking at $80.92/MWh around 16:00 AEST. This trajectory aligns with the Friday morning demand ramp coinciding with what the weather outlook suggests will be a moderating wind resource through the day — average wind potential for 19 June drops to 7.8 (versus 21.1 currently), under 67% average cloud cover. Prices are forecast to ease from the high-$60s back toward the $30s by late afternoon. Flexible load operators and battery assets should note the extended high-price window running from approximately 08:30 AEST through to 20:00 AEST.
The one active AEMO market notice of direct relevance to SA is the ST PASA Forecast LOR1 declared for Tasmania on 25 June 2026 (08:00–09:00 AEST, 580 MW requirement, 530 MW available). This does not affect SA dispatch directly today but may influence interconnector flow scheduling later in the week. The earlier SA-specific LOR1 declared for 17 June has been cancelled. No constraint notices or non-conformance events are currently active for SA1. The Gas Retail B2B system maintenance notice (CHG0111523) running today from 10:00–17:00 AEST is a pre-