NEM Overview: Thursday 18 June 2026
Spot prices are sharply split across the NEM at 06:25 AEST. NSW sits at $64.89/MWh on 7,924 MW of demand, and QLD at $62.94/MWh on 6,545 MW, while VIC and SA are both effectively at zero (−$0.10/MWh and −$0.09/MWh respectively). The price divergence is explained by interconnector flows: VIC is exporting 1,031 MW north to NSW on the VIC1-NSW1 link, which is binding at its export limit, while also pushing 209 MW west into SA via V-SA and 155 MW via V-S-MNSP1 — the latter also binding. Victoria's 3,465 MW of wind generation against only 5,499 MW of total demand is driving surplus conditions that can't fully clear southbound given the constrained Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) sitting at zero flow. WA is an outlier at $187.71/MWh, consistent with a tighter SWIS market operating outside the NEM interconnected system. TAS clears at $29.29/MWh with 895 MW of hydro and 293 MW of wind meeting its 1,185 MW load.
NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 47.7% against a grid stress score of 60.4. SA is running at 97.7% renewable penetration (0.011 tCO2/MWh) on 1,692 MW of wind with negligible gas, and TAS is at 100% on hydro and wind. VIC is at 55.1% renewable (0.547 tCO2/MWh), with 2,866 MW of brown coal making up the balance. NSW is at 39.0% (0.532 tCO2/MWh), drawing on 3,716 MW of black coal alongside 1,916 MW of wind and 388 MW of hydro. QLD is the tightest on renewables at 20.7% (0.668 tCO2/MWh), with 4,301 MW of black coal and 860 MW of gas OCGT running against 1,209 MW of wind and negligible solar — it's pre-dawn, so today's solar window will lift that figure from the morning onwards. QLD's 19.6 average solar potential index for today suggests a solid midday solar contribution once the sun rises on clear skies.
Two active notices warrant attention. AEMO has issued a Forecast LOR1 for Tasmania on 25 June 2026 between 08:00 and 09:00 AEST — reserve falls 50 MW short of the 580 MW requirement, with minimum available capacity forecast at 530 MW. Given today's Basslink is at zero flow and TAS wind conditions are soft through the weekend outlook, participants with TAS exposure should monitor the ST PASA closely as the week progresses. The North Queensland system strength constraint set (Q-NIL_STRGTH) was also updated yesterday, with revised limit advice now active in AEMO's production systems — relevant for any plant operating near the North QLD network boundary. A Gas Hub pre-production change (CHG0111523) is scheduled 10:00–17:00 AEST today, with no outage flagged and no participant impact anticipated.
Today's outlook is shaped by winter heating demand