Regional Outlook — NSW1: Wednesday 17 June 2026

The NSW1 spot price sits at $79.49/MWh against a total demand of 8,272 MW as of 06:30 AEST. Tracking the past 24 hours, prices ranged from a low of $26.61/MWh in the early hours through to an intraday peak above $111/MWh during overnight intervals, with the sustained morning peak band of $70–$80/MWh holding through the business day. The approximate 24-hour average across the price history sits in the low-to-mid $60s/MWh range, meaning the current price is running modestly above that mean as evening demand builds. Total demand reached a session high of around 10,043 MW at 06:45 AEST before easing through the afternoon and is now climbing again from a late-afternoon trough near 6,700 MW as the evening ramp commences.

The generation mix at 06:30 AEST is dominated by black coal at 5,238 MW, accounting for roughly 73% of in-region output. Wind is contributing 838 MW, hydro 514 MW, gas OCGT 514 MW, solar 159 MW, and battery dispatch 47 MW, with gas CCGT offline at zero. Renewable sources — wind, solar, and hydro combined — are contributing approximately 1,511 MW, or 21.3% of total generation, consistent with the latest carbon data. Carbon intensity sits at 0.676 tCO2/MWh with a renewable penetration of 21.3%, up from the daytime low of around 14% near midday when solar output was minimal and coal carried a larger share of the load. The intensity low-point across the day reached 0.474 tCO2/MWh around 03:30–04:00 AEST, when wind penetration was highest and overnight demand was at its softest.

The predispatch forecast signals a clear and structured price trajectory for the remainder of today and into Thursday morning. From the current $79.49/MWh, prices are forecast to ease to $71.40/MWh by 07:00–07:30 AEST before a brief lift back toward $80.58/MWh at 08:00 AEST. A sustained decline then follows through overnight, dropping into the $56/MWh range by 09:00 AEST, the low-to-mid $40s by 10:00–11:00 AEST, and a floor near $23.95–$25.74/MWh in the 13:30–14:00 AEST window. The morning ramp on Thursday 18 June is forecast to recover to $64.89/MWh at 16:00 AEST, building to $70.71/MWh through the 17:30–20:00 AEST period, with a modest mid-morning step to $79/MWh at 21:30 AEST before easing back. Flexible load operators should note the overnight trough windows between 11:00–15:30 AEST as the deepest value periods, with the 13:30 AEST half-hour at $23.95/MWh flagged as the optimal load window.

On market notices, the active NSW1-relevant non-conformance to watch is ORABESS1 (Orana BESS), which was declared non-conforming on 16