Regional Outlook — NSW1: Friday 24 July 2026
NSW spot price sits at $64.89/MWh as of 6:30am AEST, tracking below its overnight peak but well above the $1.25–5/MWh trough hit between 2:30–4:00am AEST when negative-to-near-zero prices briefly appeared (as low as -$8.77/MWh at 2:40pm on 24 July). Demand has climbed to 8,609 MW, up from the overnight low of 6,541 MW and rebuilding towards the morning peak. Over the past 24 hours, prices ranged from -$8.77 to $80.91/MWh, with the current level sitting mid-range as the market moves through the morning ramp.
Generation mix is dominated by black coal at 5,819 MW, supplying the bulk of NSW load. Wind contributes 1,062 MW, hydro 447 MW, battery storage 414 MW, gas OCGT 52 MW, and solar just 26 MW given the pre-dawn timing. Renewable penetration sits at 24.92%, down from an overnight peak above 53% reached between 1:00–3:30am AEST when wind and hydro carried a larger share of load. Carbon intensity is 0.659 tCO2/MWh, up from an overnight low of 0.405 tCO2/MWh, reflecting coal's higher share of the mix as solar has yet to ramp and wind output has eased from overnight levels.
Predispatch forecasts show prices firming through the morning and into the afternoon, with the 7:30–9:30am AEST window forecast at $76–83/MWh as demand builds, and a stronger push to $81–86/MWh around midday and into the 12:00–1:00pm AEST period. Prices are expected to ease slightly into the afternoon before a second lift to $80–82/MWh forecast around 4:30–5:00pm AEST. Weather today shows cool conditions (6.3–17.7°C) with strong solar potential (22.1) but weak wind potential (3.3), suggesting solar will offset some midday coal reliance but the evening peak will likely lean on coal and gas again.
On notices, NSW-specific items are limited to a resolved non-conformance event (GOONSF1, 23 July) and a completed transmission outage (Eraring–Vales Point 330kV line, returned to service 21 July). No active reserve or intervention notices apply to NSW currently; SA's earlier LOR2 condition for 31 July has been canc