Carbon Forecast: Wednesday 17 June 2026

NEM-wide carbon intensity sits at a wide spread across regions at 06:30 AEST this morning. Tasmania is running at 0.00 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable penetration, driven entirely by hydro (888 MW) and wind (275 MW) — a position it has held consistently through the overnight period. South Australia is the next lowest at 0.023 tCO2/MWh with 95.4% renewables, where wind (1,648 MW) is supplying nearly the entire state load with only token gas OCGT output (0.11 MW) and minimal CCGT backing (80 MW). Victoria sits at 0.520 tCO2/MWh and 56.9% renewables, with wind (3,560 MW) running hard against a brown coal baseload of 2,658 MW; this is Victoria's best intensity reading across the full dataset and reflects strong overnight wind that continues to hold. At the higher end, NSW is at 0.676 tCO2/MWh with just 21.3% renewables — black coal dominates at 5,238 MW, supported by gas OCGT (514 MW) and hydro (514 MW), with wind (838 MW) and solar (159 MW) contributing marginally. Queensland is the highest-intensity region at 0.687 tCO2/MWh with only 18.5% renewables; black coal runs at 4,704 MW, gas OCGT at 935 MW, and battery dispatch (476 MW) is elevated, suggesting peaking conditions despite the early hour.

The trajectory through today reflects a typical winter Thursday pattern. SA and Tasmania will remain in or near their current low-intensity positions through the full day — SA has tracked between 0.012 and 0.058 tCO2/MWh continuously across the dataset, with no indication of thermal uplift, and Tasmania has been at zero intensity for the majority of intervals since 14:00 AEST yesterday. Victoria's intensity is likely to hold in the 0.52–0.58 tCO2/MWh band during morning hours as wind remains elevated, with some softening possible if wind output eases into the afternoon; its best window today has already been the past few hours, where intensity trended from 0.65 down to 0.52 tCO2/MWh between 22:30 and 06:30 AEST. NSW and Queensland will see intensity firm further through the morning peak (07:00–09:30 AEST) as demand rises and thermal dispatch lifts; both regions' midday solar contribution is minimal in June, so there is limited expectation of a solar-driven intensity dip. The overnight trough in NSW (as low as 0.474 tCO2/MWh at 14:30 AEST yesterday) has already passed.

For carbon-sensitive loads, the actionable windows are clear. SA and Tasmania offer near-continuous green opportunity regardless of time of day — if interconnector capacity permits, SA's surplus wind is already supporting exports. For NSW and Queensland loads, the overnight period (roughly 00:00–05:00 AEST) consistently produces the lowest intensity readings in the dataset — NSW reached 0.474–0.507 tCO2/MWh during that window — versus 0.70+ tCO2/MWh during business hours. Any carbon-sensitive industrial scheduling in those two regions should target post-midnight to