Regional Outlook — SA1: Tuesday 16 June 2026

The spot price in South Australia sits at $0/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, capping a sustained stretch of near-zero and negative pricing that has dominated the afternoon and evening. Looking across the past 24 hours, the price profile is sharply bimodal: the morning peak period from approximately 05:00–11:00 AEST saw prices consistently in the $55–$86/MWh range as winter demand climbed toward ~1,960 MW, before collapsing after 11:00 AEST when prices dropped to near zero or negative, where they have largely remained. The 24-hour average sits in the low-to-mid $20s/MWh, heavily skewed by that morning ramp. Current demand is 1,454 MW — well below the morning peak — consistent with overnight mid-week winter conditions.

Wind is carrying the grid right now, generating 1,591 MW and accounting for the vast majority of dispatch. Gas CCGT contributes a minimal 40 MW, GAS OCGT 0.1 MW, and battery storage is running at 6.1 MW net output. Solar is at zero, as expected overnight. The renewable penetration rate sits at 97.55% and carbon intensity is 0.012 tCO2/MWh — near the floor of what the SA grid produces. This overnight wind-heavy profile has been consistent across the carbon history, with intensity holding in the 0.011–0.013 tCO2/MWh band through most of the past 12 hours, ticking up only briefly to ~0.049 tCO2/MWh during the morning gas-supported peak when renewable penetration dipped toward 91–92%.

Predispatch forecasts show prices lifting from the current floor across the morning. The trajectory moves from $7.34/MWh at 07:00 AEST to $12.25/MWh by 07:30, then accelerating sharply through the pre-dawn demand ramp: $29.53/MWh at 12:00 AEST, $42/MWh at 13:00, and peaking around $41–$42/MWh in the 13:00–13:30 AEST window before easing back through the middle of the day. Negative pricing then returns from approximately 18:30–04:00 AEST tomorrow, with forecasts reaching as low as -$3/MWh in the 23:00–04:00 AEST window. That negative period aligns with the weather outlook showing 100% cloud cover and average wind potential of 11.8 tomorrow — stronger than today's 9.1 — suggesting wind supply will remain elevated relative to demand throughout Wednesday.

On market notices, the most relevant active item for SA is AEMO's ST PASA Forecast LOR1 notice (Market Notice 144233, issued 10 June), which flagged a potential reserve shortfall in SA on 17 June 2026 across two windows: 08:00–09:30 AEST and 16:30–22:30 AEST, with minimum available reserve falling below the 320 MW requirement. However, this was subsequently cancelled via Market Notice 144242 on 11 June at 14:00 AEST, so no LOR condition is currently active for SA today. The MT PASA reserve notice (144273, issued 16 June) confirms no Low Reserve Conditions are identified across the