NEM Overview: Tuesday 16 June 2026
Spot prices are contained across the NEM's eastern regions at the 06:30 AEST interval, with NSW sitting at $80.10/MWh on demand of 8,263 MW and QLD at $76.17/MWh on 6,677 MW. Both VIC and SA are clearing at $0/MWh — VIC carrying 5,363 MW of demand and SA 1,454 MW — driven by strong wind output suppressing prices in both regions. TAS prints at $59.00/MWh. WA (SWIS) stands out at $137.08/MWh, the highest print across all regions this interval. The NSW–VIC spread of ~$80/MWh is notable and consistent with VIC1–NSW1 interconnector flow of 963 MW north at its export binding limit, meaning cheap Victorian generation is already flowing into NSW at full capacity but cannot fully arbitrage the gap.
NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 45.2% per the gridIQ score. The generation mix reflects a mid-winter night profile: solar output is effectively zero across all regions, leaving wind and hydro to carry renewable output. VIC is producing 3,134 MW of wind against 3,259 MW of brown coal — a near-even split. SA wind is generating 1,591 MW, with the region sitting at 97.6% renewable penetration and a carbon intensity of just 0.012 tCO2/MWh. NSW renewable penetration is 14.7% at 0.750 tCO2/MWh, with 5,879 MW of black coal dominating the stack. QLD battery storage is dispatching 419 MW alongside 745 MW of gas OCGT to supplement 4,697 MW of black coal, with wind adding 1,072 MW. TAS is running at 100% renewable penetration via 920 MW of hydro and 144 MW of wind, exporting 155 MW to VIC via Basslink.
The key active notice to flag is ORABESS1 (Orana Battery Energy Storage System, NSW) — AEMO declared two non-conformance events overnight at 18:25–18:40 (-131 MW) and 19:30–19:35 (-415 MW) under clause 3.8.23. The -415 MW deviation is material for a single unit and warrants monitoring: if ORABESS1 is constrained or experiencing dispatch issues during today's evening peak (roughly 17:00–20:00 AEST), NSW will be more reliant on thermal and interconnector capacity at a time when the VIC1–NSW1 link is already at its export binding limit. Grid stress is scored at 72.8/100, reflecting that tightness. The MT PASA reserve notice confirms no Low Reserve Conditions are currently forecast NEM-wide, and the earlier SA LOR1 forecast for today (0800–0930 and 1630–2230) was cancelled on 11 June, so no formal reserve shortfall is in play for SA today.
Today's outlook is shaped by overcast conditions across most regions — NSW cloud cover is at 98%, QLD at 76%, SA and TAS both at 100% — limiting solar recovery through the day. NSW maximum temperature is forecast at 18.7°C, supporting moderate heating demand. Wind potential lifts in SA today (avg 11.8) and remains reasonable in VIC (avg 5.5), which