Carbon Forecast: Tuesday 16 June 2026

NEM carbon intensity at 06:30 AEST sits at sharply divergent levels across regions. Tasmania records 0.00 tCO2/MWh at 100% renewable penetration, running entirely on hydro and wind. South Australia is effectively decarbonised at 0.012 tCO2/MWh with 97.6% renewables — wind at 1,591 MW dominates, with a token 40 MW gas CCGT and 6 MW of battery discharge making up the balance. Victoria sits at 0.622 tCO2/MWh with 49% renewables; 3,134 MW of wind runs alongside 3,259 MW of brown coal, producing the split mix. Queensland is at 0.653 tCO2/MWh with only 23% renewables — 4,697 MW of black coal and 745 MW of gas OCGT underpin the dispatch stack, partially offset by 1,072 MW of wind and 419 MW of battery discharge. NSW carries the highest intensity at 0.750 tCO2/MWh with just 14.7% renewables; 5,879 MW of black coal dominates generation, with hydro at 626 MW, wind at 241 MW, and solar at 149 MW rounding out the mix.

Tracing today's trajectory from the overnight data, NSW intensity dipped to a daily low near 0.494–0.499 tCO2/MWh in the 13:00–15:00 AEST window when renewable penetration crested above 43%, before climbing steadily through the morning peak and holding above 0.750 tCO2/MWh through the afternoon and into evening as coal dispatch ramped up and solar contribution fell. SA has maintained sub-0.015 tCO2/MWh almost continuously across the 24-hour period, with only a brief rise to ~0.051 tCO2/MWh around 16:30–17:30 AEST during a period of reduced wind, before dropping back. Victoria saw its highest intensity around 0.807 tCO2/MWh at 20:00 AEST when wind softened below 35% penetration, recovering as wind output climbed back toward 3,134 MW this interval.

For carbon-sensitive loads, the optimal scheduling windows are clear by region. SA and Tasmania are effectively always-on green options in this period — no meaningful intensity variation warrants timing adjustments. For Victorian loads, the current 06:30 AEST interval at 0.622 tCO2/MWh is among the better windows of the day; intensity rises toward 0.78–0.81 tCO2/MWh during mid-morning when brown coal output is running flat and wind is lighter. In NSW and Queensland, the lowest-intensity windows occurred in the overnight-to-pre-dawn period (roughly 12:00–16:00 AEST based on today's curve) when wind generation was strongest relative to total demand. With solar now negligible in the June dispatch profile and the evening demand peak approaching, NSW and Queensland intensity is unlikely to improve materially through the remainder of today — carbon-sensitive scheduling in those regions is best deferred to the equivalent overnight window tomorrow.