Regional Outlook — VIC1: Monday 15 June 2026

The Victoria spot price sits at **-$0.10/MWh** as of 06:30 AEST, having been negative for the past several hours. This is a sharp contrast to the evening peak that saw prices ranging between $70–$114/MWh from around 07:25–09:00 AEST. The sustained negative pricing reflects a generation surplus driven by strong wind output against softening overnight demand. Total demand currently sits at 5,381 MW, well below the evening peak of approximately 8,140 MW recorded around 08:10 AEST.

The generation mix is split almost evenly between wind and brown coal. Wind is generating **3,294 MW** and brown coal **3,304 MW**, together accounting for the bulk of supply. Gas OCGT contributes a minor **108 MW**, hydro **49 MW**, while solar and battery output are both at zero — consistent with mid-winter overnight conditions. Renewable penetration stands at **49.5%**, a significant step up from the 22–27% range seen during last night's evening peak, when wind was lower and thermal dispatch was higher. Carbon intensity is currently **0.607 tCO2/MWh**, down from a peak of **0.915 tCO2/MWh** at 07:00 AEST — the improvement driven by wind's growing share through the day's low-demand trough. Temperature is 14.8°C with 100% cloud cover and a modest heating demand load; solar potential is zero for the day, confirming no rooftop contribution until at least Wednesday.

Predispatch forecasts show prices lifting through the morning as demand rises: $27.40/MWh at 07:00 AEST, climbing to $54.69/MWh by 17:00 AEST and $63.75/MWh by 19:00 AEST as the winter evening ramp takes hold. The negative price window returns from approximately 23:30 AEST through to 04:00 AEST Wednesday (AEST: 13:30–18:00 UTC), reaching a trough of -$3.21/MWh at 04:00 AEST Wednesday. That pattern mirrors today's overnight profile and presents a repeating flex load opportunity for large industrial and battery operators. Tomorrow's outlook is fully overcast (99% cloud, avg solar potential 0), so the wind-and-coal mix is expected to persist with no solar contribution.

The one active market notice of direct relevance to Victoria is notice **144236**, which flagged a short-notice outage of the APD A2 500/220 kV transformer on 10 June, invoking constraint set **F-I_ML_APD_LOAD** on the T-V-MNSP1 (Terranora/Vic–SA) interconnector. Participants should confirm current constraint set status with AEMO's NOS, as the notice remains active in the system. No Victorian LOR conditions are currently declared. The older Kerang–Koorangie 220 kV unplanned outage notice (144217, invoked 9 June) also remains active and constrains multiple interconnectors including VIC1-NSW1 and V-SA — traders managing cross-border flows should factor this into position management until a revocation notice is issued.