NEM Overview: Monday 15 June 2026

Spot prices are sharply divergent across the NEM at 06:30 AEST. Queensland leads at $70.84/MWh and NSW sits at $70.60/MWh, with Tasmania close behind at $69.18/MWh — a tight eastern seaboard cluster reflecting solid winter heating demand of 8,437 MW in NSW and 6,584 MW in QLD. Victoria and SA are the outliers, both printing effectively zero with VIC at -$0.10/MWh and SA at -$0.09/MWh. That negative pricing in VIC is driven by 3,294 MW of wind generation against total state demand of only 5,381 MW, with VIC1-NSW1 running at 1,055 MW and binding at its export limit — the interconnector is fully loaded pushing surplus south-to-north. SA's 1,772 MW of wind is similarly overwhelming local demand of 1,494 MW, giving SA a renewable penetration of 97.8% and a carbon intensity of just 0.0109 tCO2/MWh. The V-SA interconnector is exporting 397 MW into SA to absorb some of that Victorian generation, with V-S-MNSP1 (Murraylink) sitting at zero flow.

NEM-wide renewable penetration stands at 44.2% per the current gridIQ score. TAS is 100% hydro and wind at 989 MW and 36 MW respectively, with the Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) flowing 107 MW northbound into VIC. NSW renewable share is 24.1% — wind at 886 MW and hydro at 547 MW against a black coal baseload of 4,972 MW. QLD's renewable share is 22.9%, with wind at 1,320 MW and hydro at 136 MW alongside 4,780 MW of black coal. The grid stress score of 77.6 reflects the binding VIC1-NSW1 interconnector and the broader challenge of redistributing excess wind generation from the southern regions into the price-supported east.

The most actionable notice for today is the QLD non-conformance for MPP_2 (36 MW, 14 June) which remains active, and the ongoing automated constraint CA_BRIS_593C7214 on N-Q-MNSP1 invoked 11 June to manage QLD security — traders should note this continues to constrain Directlink flows. On reserves, the SA LOR1 forecast for 17 June (0800–0930 and 1630–2230) was cancelled on 11 June and is no longer active, so no reserve concern is in play for tomorrow. Weather outlook for today has Victoria socked in under 99% cloud cover with a 16.5°C maximum and strong wind potential, which will sustain the surplus wind dynamic and keep VIC and SA prices suppressed through the day. NSW cloud clears to 55% average today with a 20°C maximum, supporting a moderate solar contribution through the afternoon before the evening demand peak drives prices higher in the eastern regions.