Commodity Demand — VIC1: Monday 15 June 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at -$0.10/MWh at 06:30 AEST with total demand at 5,381 MW — well below the evening peak of 8,141 MW reached around 08:10 AEST. Prices have been negative or near-zero continuously since 00:00 AEST (24:00 local), a stretch of over six hours, driven by demand sitting in the 4,300–5,400 MW range through the overnight and early morning trough. The price-demand relationship across today's history is tight: when demand climbed to the 7,600–8,100 MW range during the morning peak (17:00–18:00 AEST equivalent, i.e. the 06:00–08:00 AEST window), prices tracked $70–$79/MWh. As demand fell away through the mid-period toward 4,300 MW, prices collapsed through zero and into negative territory from 02:00 AEST onwards.

The generation mix at 06:00 AEST shows wind at 3,294 MW and brown coal at 3,304 MW providing the dominant supply, with gas OCGT contributing 108 MW and hydro 49 MW. Solar output is zero given the winter solstice conditions and 100% cloud cover at 14.8°C. With wind and coal together near 6,600 MW against current demand of only 5,381 MW, supply is clearly exceeding native load and driving prices negative. This structural oversupply is the direct mechanism behind the sustained negative pricing: inflexible baseload and strong wind output cannot be rapidly curtailed to match the low-demand overnight trough.

Demand is now rising — from a floor near 4,314 MW at 04:00 AEST to 5,381 MW at 06:30 AEST — and forecasts show prices recovering to $27–$35/MWh by 07:00–08:00 AEST as the morning ramp takes demand back toward the 7,000–8,000 MW range. The forecast morning peak window (07:00–10:00 AEST) prices at $55–$64/MWh, consistent with what the grid delivered at equivalent demand levels earlier today. The midday period (11:00–13:00 AEST) is forecast to return prices to near-zero and then negative again as demand drops back to the 5,400–5,800 MW range — a direct repeat of today's daytime price collapse pattern.

The afternoon window from 20:30–00:00 AEST (i.e. 14:30–18:00 local forecast) is priced at -$1.18 to -$3.21/MWh, the deepest negative tranche of the day, coinciding with forecast demand in the 4,400–4,700 MW range and no solar contribution. For flexible loads and battery operators, the 03:00–08:30 AEST window tomorrow (forecast $5–$15/MWh) and the 21:30–00:00 AEST window tonight (forecast -$2 to -$3/MWh) represent the lowest-cost procurement periods. The morning peak sensitivity is clear: each 1,000 MW step in demand from trough to peak correlates with roughly a $15–$20/MWh price shift in today's data, making the 07:00–09:00 A