Carbon Forecast: Monday 15 June 2026

Carbon intensity across the NEM sits at markedly different levels by region at 06:30 AEST this Tuesday morning. Tasmania records 0.00 tCO2/MWh at 100% renewable penetration, driven entirely by hydro (998 MW) and a small wind contribution (44 MW). South Australia is at 0.0108 tCO2/MWh with 97.8% renewables — wind is supplying 1,777 MW with only a token 40 MW of gas CCGT and 0.1 MW of OCGT on the system. Victoria sits at 0.5928 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 50.7%, where 3,448 MW of wind is running alongside 3,302 MW of brown coal and 109 MW of gas OCGT. NSW is at 0.6774 tCO2/MWh (22.9% renewables), with 5,596 MW of black coal dominating a mix that also includes 897 MW of wind, 618 MW of hydro, and 156 MW of solar. Queensland is at 0.6346 tCO2/MWh with 27.4% renewables — 4,689 MW of black coal is the base, supplemented by 1,410 MW of wind, 270 MW of battery discharge, 136 MW of hydro, and negligible solar at this hour.

The overnight data shows a clear pattern that informs today's outlook. In SA, intensity has held between 0.01 and 0.015 tCO2/MWh continuously since around 22:00 AEST last night, and that near-zero window is ongoing right now with no deterioration evident in the trend — wind conditions are sustaining it. Tasmania's zero-intensity profile has similarly held without interruption since around 15:00 AEST yesterday. Both regions are in a sustained low-intensity window now. Victoria tracked its daily low intensity around 0.58–0.59 tCO2/MWh in the 00:30–01:00 AEST range overnight, with renewables peaking near 52% in the 14:30–15:30 UTC window (00:30–01:30 AEST); current intensity has pulled back to 0.5928 tCO2/MWh, broadly in line with those overnight lows, indicating wind output remains strong.

For NSW and Queensland, the daily intensity profile in today's data shows the overnight trough — NSW dipped to around 0.47 tCO2/MWh near 13:30–14:00 AEST as wind and hydro carried a larger share of reduced overnight demand, while Queensland reached lows near 0.44 tCO2/MWh around 10:00 AEST. Both states climbed sharply through the morning peak from around 16:30–17:00 AEST onward as coal dispatch increased to meet rising demand, and intensity in both is now holding in the 0.63–0.68 tCO2/MWh range. With solar output negligible at this winter hour and demand continuing to build through the morning, there is no material improvement expected in NSW or Queensland intensity until overnight demand falls again — the next comparable low-intensity window for those regions is likely between 09:00 and 14:00 AEST tonight.

For carbon-sensitive load scheduling: SA and Tasmania offer the best conditions on the