Regional Outlook — VIC1: Sunday 14 June 2026

The Victoria spot price sits at $81.38/MWh at 06:25 AEST, with total demand at 6,368 MW as the Monday morning winter peak builds. This is firmly within the sustained high-price band that has held since approximately 17:00 AEST Sunday, where prices have ranged between $70–$95/MWh through the morning ramp. The overnight trough was markedly cheaper — prices fell as low as $8.81/MWh between 00:00–04:00 AEST — giving a wide intraday spread that underscores the value of flexible load scheduling today. The grid stress score of 83.6 reflects the tight supply-demand balance at this point in the morning peak.

Brown coal dominates the generation mix at 4,641 MW (approximately 73% of output), with wind contributing 808 MW (13%), gas OCGT at 386 MW (6%), hydro at 48 MW (1%), and battery at 18 MW. Solar is contributing 0 MW, consistent with pre-dawn conditions at 06:25 AEST. Renewables are contributing 14.81% of generation. Carbon intensity sits at 1.002 tCO2/MWh — elevated relative to the overnight low of approximately 0.877 tCO2/MWh recorded around 08:00–09:00 AEST Sunday when wind was stronger relative to thermal dispatch. A VIC-region inter-regional transfer notice (MN 144236) remains active regarding the APD A2 500/220 kV transformer outage invoked 10 June, with constraint set F-I_ML_APD_LOAD affecting the T-V-MNSP1 interconnector; traders should monitor whether this continues to limit import capacity from Tasmania.

Predispatch forecasts point to prices remaining elevated through the morning, peaking near $101/MWh at 10:00 AEST before easing. The most notable trajectory is the sharp afternoon collapse: prices are forecast to drop from ~$61/MWh at 22:00 AEST to sub-zero territory from 00:30 AEST (15 June, 10:30 AEST local), with the trough reaching -$2.99/MWh at 03:00 AEST (18:00 local). This mid-afternoon negative price window — running from approximately 00:30 to 03:00 AEST — aligns with the winter solar window and likely reflects flexible thermal backing off. Demand response operators and battery operators should mark 21:30–22:30 AEST as the next price peak window (~$96–$101/MWh) and the 00:30–03:00 AEST band as the optimal flexible load or charging window.

Weather conditions reinforce this outlook: the current temperature of 5.5°C with a heating demand index of 12.5 is sustaining the elevated morning demand. Tomorrow (15 June) brings a max of 15.8°C with average wind potential of 2.7 and cloud cover at 71%, which is consistent with the forecast wind contribution keeping afternoon prices suppressed. Tuesday 16 June shows wind potential rising sharply to 10.1 with 99% cloud cover, suggesting continued downward pressure on prices in that period. No active market notices directly affect VIC1 operations today, though the APD transformer constraint and the Kerang–Koorangie 220 kV