Carbon Forecast: Sunday 14 June 2026

As of 06:20 AEST, NEM-wide carbon intensity spans a wide range across regions. TAS1 is effectively at zero — 0.0044 tCO2/MWh with 99.32% renewables, driven entirely by hydro (1,156 MW) and wind (93 MW). SA1 sits at 0.1098 tCO2/MWh with 81.08% renewable penetration, where wind (1,450 MW) dominates and gas OCGT and CCGT (340 MW combined) provide the balance. NSW1 reads 0.6252 tCO2/MWh at 28.8% renewables, with black coal (5,196 MW) the dominant source alongside a strong hydro and wind contribution (911 MW and 1,115 MW respectively). QLD1 is at 0.674 tCO2/MWh with 20.98% renewables — black coal (4,974 MW) and gas OCGT (662 MW) underpin most supply, with wind (1,058 MW) and battery (301 MW) rounding out the mix. VIC1 is the highest-intensity region at 1.002 tCO2/MWh, with brown coal (4,642 MW) accounting for the bulk of generation and renewables at just 14.81%.

The day's data shows SA1 had its cleanest window overnight, touching 0.0274 tCO2/MWh at 94%+ renewable penetration between approximately 10:00 and 15:00 AEST, driven by overnight wind strength. That window has narrowed through the morning as demand has risen, but SA1 remains well below 0.12 tCO2/MWh and wind output continues to sustain high renewable fractions into the evening. TAS1 has registered 0.00 tCO2/MWh for most of the day from 22:30 AEST onward and is expected to hold at or near zero through tonight given its hydro-dominant fleet. NSW1 saw its lowest intensities through the afternoon window (roughly 00:25–05:00 AEST), reaching a trough near 0.574 tCO2/MWh as wind ramps produced 34% renewable penetration — that window has now closed as solar exits and the evening demand ramp begins. VIC1's trajectory has moved from a morning low near 0.877 tCO2/MWh back above 1.0 tCO2/MWh as afternoon demand increased and wind contribution fell below 15%.

For carbon-sensitive loads, the actionable guidance is straightforward. SA1 and TAS1 are the clear low-intensity options now and through the remainder of the day, with SA1 wind sustaining the 0.10–0.13 tCO2/MWh range into the evening and TAS1 holding near zero. Operators in those regions should treat the current window as already optimal. In NSW1 and QLD1, the next meaningful low-intensity opportunity aligns with overnight wind ramp conditions — data patterns suggest intensity in both regions dips most reliably between 08:00 and 15:00 AEST as wind generation peaks; tonight that window opens around 08:30–09:00 AEST. VIC1 carbon-sensitive scheduling is most constrained — with brown coal providing the baseload floor, intensity is unlikely