Regional Outlook — VIC1: Saturday 13 June 2026

The VIC1 spot price sits at $58.53/MWh as of 06:25 AEST, a marked step down from the sustained $65–$83/MWh range that characterised the morning peak between 17:00 and 24:00 AEST. Demand currently stands at 4,842 MW, well off the overnight peak of approximately 6,680 MW recorded around 17:30–17:45 AEST. The 24-hour price profile tells a clear story: prices ran negative (as low as -$3.10/MWh) through the early hours of this morning's AEST equivalent, reflecting surplus overnight conditions, before climbing sharply from around 14:00 AEST as morning demand built. Prices then held firmly in the $65–$75/MWh band through the bulk of the business day before easing into the current level.

The generation mix at the most recent interval (05:55 AEST) is dominated by brown coal at 4,683 MW, with gas OCGT contributing 338 MW, wind at 405 MW, hydro at 50 MW, and battery output negligible at 0.04 MW. Solar is zero, consistent with overnight conditions. Renewables are contributing approximately 8.3% of generation — a figure that has declined steadily across today's data from a high of around 57% in the early overnight period, as wind output softened and brown coal dispatch lifted to meet rising weekday demand. Carbon intensity sits at 1.0835 tCO2/MWh, the highest point recorded across today's dataset, up from 0.61 tCO2/MWh in the overnight window. The grid stress score of 84.1 reflects the tightening between dispatchable capacity and demand through the morning peak period.

Predispatch forecasts point to prices lifting from the current $58.53/MWh through the evening, with the 07:00–08:30 AEST window (22:00–23:30 UTC) forecast at $65–$75/MWh before a brief spike to $74.69/MWh around 08:30 AEST. Prices are then forecast to ease to $55.05/MWh through 09:00–10:30 AEST, dropping further to a trough of $19.18–$20.62/MWh between roughly 12:30 and 15:30 AEST — the optimal load window for flexible demand and battery charging. The morning ramp on Sunday 14 June is forecast to be pronounced, with prices climbing to $59.33/MWh by 16:00 AEST and sustaining above $78–$86/MWh through the 17:00–19:00 AEST peak, before moderating to the low-to-mid $60s into the afternoon.

Two active market notices carry relevance for Victorian operations. AEMO Market Notice 144236 (issued 10 June) flags a short-notice outage of the APD A2 500/220 kV transformer in VIC with constraint set F-I_ML_APD_LOAD invoked against the T-V-MNSP1 interconnector (Vic–Tasmania link); this constraint remains active and will limit import capability from Tasmania, reducing access to hydro-backed capacity that would otherwise soften peak pricing. Additionally, the Kerang–Koorangie 220 kV line unplanned