Regional Outlook — NSW1: Saturday 13 June 2026
The NSW spot price sits at $70.71/MWh at 06:25 AEST, with total demand at 6,621 MW — a significant step down from the winter morning peak that saw prices sustain above $80–$89/MWh between 17:00 and 21:00 AEST yesterday as demand climbed past 8,800 MW. Overnight prices collapsed through the low $20s and briefly touched $0.98/MWh around 11:50 AEST, before the ramp into this morning's demand profile pushed prices back up. The 24-hour price trend is firmly two-phased: a deep overnight trough followed by a sustained elevation as heating demand lifts with the winter morning. Current conditions show 87% cloud cover, 15.2°C, and a heating demand index of 2.8 — typical mid-June profile that will drive another demand build through the coming morning peak.
The generation mix at 05:55 AEST shows black coal carrying 4,256 MW (approximately 69% of in-region output), wind contributing 868 MW (14%), hydro at 718 MW (12%), solar at 131 MW (2%), and gas OCGT at 41 MW (under 1%). Battery output is negligible at 0.09 MW. Carbon intensity sits at 0.6273 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 28.5% — a material decline from the overnight low-demand window where renewables reached nearly 48% penetration and intensity fell to 0.4526 tCO2/MWh around 12:25 AEST. With solar potential effectively zero under 87% cloud cover, the daytime mix will remain coal and hydro-dominated until cloud cover breaks. The outlook for tomorrow (14 June) shows average cloud cover still at 85% with minimal solar potential, so no meaningful solar uplift is expected to shift the mix or carbon intensity during daylight hours.
Predispatch forecasts signal a stepwise price escalation through today's morning peak. Prices are forecast to lift from $79/MWh at 07:00 AEST, reaching $91–$98/MWh between 17:00 and 18:30 AEST — the sharpest part of the curve — before moderating to $89.70/MWh across the 19:00–20:30 AEST window and easing back toward the $80–$88/MWh range through the late morning. A brief softening to $65–$67/MWh is forecast between 09:00–10:00 AEST, before prices firm again. Load optimisation windows are flagged between 11:00–12:00 AEST (prices $56–$65/MWh) and again in the 02:00–03:30 AEST window (AEST Sunday night), where prices drop to $61–$65/MWh — the most favourable periods for discretionary load scheduling.
Two active market notices are relevant to NSW today. AEMO issued a non-conformance notice against unit WTAHB1 (11:50–11:55 AEST, 134 MW deviation, constraint NC-N_WTAHB1) — a wind unit non-compliance of notable scale but brief duration, with no ongoing dispatch impact flagged. An inter-regional transfer notice remains active regarding planned outages on the Blackwall–Tarong 875 275k