Regional Outlook — NSW1: Thursday 23 July 2026
NSW spot price sits at $68.16/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, tracking within the $65-80/MWh band that's dominated the past 24 hours. Demand reads 9,557 MW and climbing into the morning ramp, up from the overnight trough of ~6,700-6,900 MW recorded between 03:00-05:00 AEST, when prices briefly collapsed to single digits and even printed negative (-$1.21/MWh at 15:15 yesterday) on excess renewable output. The 24-hour range has been wide: a low of $1.20/MWh overnight through to a peak of $86.97/MWh around 06:45 AEST as demand ramped hard into the morning peak.
Generation mix at the current interval shows black coal supplying 6,383 MW, the largest single contributor, with wind at 1,205 MW, hydro at 949 MW, battery discharge at 132 MW, solar at 115 MW (pre-dawn, minimal output), and gas OCGT contributing just 50 MW. Renewable penetration sits at 27.18%, down from the overnight peak of 55.9% recorded around 04:00 AEST when wind and hydro carried a much larger share of load. Carbon intensity currently reads 0.6395 tCO2/MWh, having risen steadily from an overnight low of 0.3876 tCO2/MWh as coal generation has scaled up to meet the morning demand ramp — this inverse relationship between renewable share and carbon intensity has been consistent through the 24-hour window.
Predispatch forecasts point to a firming price trajectory through the morning: $71.40/MWh by 07:30 AEST, climbing sharply to $96.52/MWh at 08:00 and holding in the $93-98/MWh band through to 11:00 AEST before easing to $84/MWh by midday and settling into the $60-68/MWh range through the afternoon. This morning peak reflects tightening reserves as demand climbs while solar output remains constrained — today's weather outlook shows a cold start at 6.7°C with clear skies (0% cloud cover) but only moderate solar potential (22.8% average) given winter sun angles, and wind potential is weak at just 2.9% average, limiting renewable contribution during the price-critical morning block.
On notices, AEMO issued a non-conformance declaration for unit GOONSF1 in NSW1 (19 MW deviation, 09:40-