Carbon Forecast: Saturday 13 June 2026

NEM-wide carbon intensity sits at opposite extremes this morning, with Tasmania recording 0.00 tCO2/MWh at 100% renewable penetration — hydro at 649.66 MW and wind at 371.88 MW covering all local demand — while Victoria is the highest-intensity region on the NEM at 1.08 tCO2/MWh with renewables at just 7.27%. Victoria's mix is dominated by brown coal at 4,686 MW, supplemented by 505.72 MW of gas OCGT, with wind contributing only 351 MW and solar flat at zero. South Australia is the clear standout among the mainland regions at 0.19 tCO2/MWh with 66.4% renewable penetration, driven by 891 MW of wind against a relatively modest gas fleet (194 MW OCGT, 257 MW CCGT). NSW sits at 0.62 tCO2/MWh (29% renewables), with 4,269 MW of black coal as the baseload anchor, offset partially by 845 MW wind and 786 MW hydro. Queensland is at 0.69 tCO2/MWh with only 18.25% renewables — 4,104 MW of black coal and 656 MW of gas OCGT dominate, with 927 MW of wind providing the primary renewable contribution and solar effectively zero at this pre-dawn point.

The overnight trajectory across the dataset tells a clear story for carbon-sensitive scheduling. SA recorded its lowest intensity of the period around 7 AEST (0.014 tCO2/MWh, 97%+ renewable) before demand-driven gas dispatch progressively lifted intensity through the morning peak to around 0.36 tCO2/MWh by 21:30 AEST. NSW hit its daily low near 12:30 AEST at 0.45 tCO2/MWh as overnight wind generation was strongest. Victoria's trajectory has been consistently worsening since midnight — intensity was 0.52 tCO2/MWh at 11:00 AEST and has climbed steadily to 1.08 tCO2/MWh as morning demand peaks lifted brown coal and gas dispatch while wind output remained subdued. Queensland followed a similar pattern, with its best readings (~0.40 tCO2/MWh, ~53% renewables) occurring in the early overnight period around 7–8 AEST before coal and gas ramp-up for the business day.

For carbon-sensitive loads, the optimal scheduling windows for the remainder of today are concentrated in SA and Tasmania. SA's intensity is now improving again from the afternoon peak — at 0.19 tCO2/MWh and trending downward as wind strengthens, with the data showing a consistent evening wind uplift pattern that brought SA below 0.015 tCO2/MWh overnight. Loads in SA that can shift to the post-22:00 AEST window should see intensity approach or breach 0.05 tCO2/MWh. Tasmania offers zero-emissions dispatch around the clock given its all-renewable mix today, making it the lowest-risk option for any carbon-attributed consumption. NSW offers a secondary opportunity if wind generation holds near current levels, but the 0.62 tCO2/MWh reading reflects structural coal baseload that limits further improvement without significant renewable ramp. Victoria offers no near-term green window while