Regional Outlook — QLD1: Friday 12 June 2026

Queensland's spot price sits at $53.75/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 5,940 MW — well below the morning peak of 7,700 MW recorded around 17:55 AEST yesterday. Tracing the last 24 hours, prices ran hard during the morning ramp, reaching $95.91/MWh at 16:55 AEST before easing through the afternoon and into the evening. The overnight trough pulled prices into the $23–40/MWh range, and the current $53.75/MWh reflects early morning conditions ahead of today's demand build. The 24-hour volume-weighted average sits in the mid-to-high $50s/MWh, placing the current price broadly in line with that average.

The generation mix at 06:30 AEST is dominated by black coal at 4,179 MW, with wind contributing 1,235 MW, gas OCGT at 284 MW, hydro at 116 MW, battery at 110 MW, and solar negligible at 0.4 MW given pre-dawn conditions. Combined renewables — wind, solar, hydro, and battery — are contributing approximately 1,461 MW, representing 24.67% of generation. Carbon intensity sits at 0.6519 tCO2/MWh, tracking near the top of the day's range; the lowest intensity recorded over the past 24 hours was 0.4753 tCO2/MWh around midnight AEST when wind penetration peaked above 45%. With solar potential forecast to average 14.6 today and 35% average cloud cover, some downward pressure on intensity is expected through the late morning into early afternoon.

Predispatch forecasts show a sharp price escalation from the current $53.75/MWh into the morning peak, with prices reaching $76–79/MWh by 07:00–07:30 AEST, climbing further to $87–90/MWh between 08:00 and 10:30 AEST, then holding in the $80–85/MWh band through midday and into the early afternoon. Prices are forecast to ease progressively from around 14:00 AEST — $76/MWh at 14:00, $72/MWh by 15:00–15:30, declining to $60–62/MWh through late afternoon and early evening. Notably, the deep overnight period from approximately 10:00–13:30 AEST (00:00–03:30 UTC) is forecast to see prices near zero or negative, with two half-hour intervals forecast at -$1.92/MWh — optimal windows for flexible load and battery charging ahead of tomorrow morning's ramp.

On market notices, three intervals on 13 June (02:50, 03:00, and 03:05 AEST) are currently subject to AEMO review under clause 3.9.2B for Manifestly Incorrect Inputs — the 02:40 interval has since been confirmed with prices unchanged. The active inter-regional transfer notice (MN 144238) relates to constraint set CA_BRIS_593C7214 on the N-Q-MNSP1 interconnector, invoked from 08:30 AEST on 11 June to manage power system security in Queensland — this constraint remains active and may continue to influence QLD–NSW transfer capacity. Traders