Commodity Demand — SA1: Friday 12 June 2026

South Australia sits at 1,269 MW at 06:00 AEST with spot price at -$3.13/MWh, continuing a sustained run of negative pricing that has persisted almost unbroken since around 08:30 AEST yesterday. Wind is carrying 1,110 MW against total demand of 1,269 MW, with gas CCGT contributing just 41 MW and OCGT negligible at 0.11 MW — supply is comfortably exceeding net demand at this level, which explains the negative price floor. This is a Saturday in mid-winter with 100% cloud cover and zero solar potential, so demand is being driven purely by heating load at a modest 2.9 units of heating demand with a current temperature of 15.1°C — mild for June, which keeps aggregate demand well below typical winter peak territory.

The demand trajectory across today's data tells a clear story about price sensitivity. Demand climbed from around 1,270 MW in the early hours to a session high near 1,778 MW around 18:10–18:30 AEST, where prices hit their deepest negative prints in the -$20/MWh range as wind generation ran ahead of load. As demand then unwound through the afternoon — tracking down from 1,700 MW toward the current 1,269 MW — prices eased but remained negative throughout, with intermittent deeper prints of -$12 to -$15/MWh coinciding with intervals where supply surplus widened momentarily. The price-demand relationship is inverted at these low demand levels: falling demand with steady wind output pushes prices further negative, not higher.

The forward curve flips sharply. Forecasts remain negative from -$5.14/MWh at 07:00 AEST through to around -$0.11/MWh at 11:30–12:00 AEST, then prices turn positive and rise steeply — $50/MWh at 12:00 AEST, $98/MWh at 12:30 AEST, sustaining above $97–$101/MWh through to approximately 21:00 AEST before easing toward $56/MWh at 04:00 AEST Sunday. This shift reflects the transition into the winter morning demand ramp, where heating load pushes SA demand toward the 1,600–1,800 MW range and dispatchable capacity becomes the marginal price setter as wind output alone cannot cover load. Wind potential drops to an average of 3.1 on Sunday's outlook, reinforcing the case that the positive price window is supply-constrained, not demand-driven alone.

Traders and demand-side managers should note AEMO Market Notice 144233 — a Forecast LOR1 for SA on 17 June, covering 08:00–09:30 and 16:30–22:30, where minimum available capacity reserve falls below the 320 MW requirement. That notice was subsequently cancelled (MN 144242), but separate intervals at 03:00 and 03:05 AEST today are still subject to AEMO Manifestly Incorrect Inputs review. Load shifting into the current negative price window (before approximately 11:30 AEST) and away from the $97–$101/MWh midday-to-evening block represents the clearest demand-side opportunity today.