Commodity Demand — NSW1: Friday 12 June 2026

NSW spot sits at $53.73/MWh with demand at 7,114 MW as of 06:30 AEST, well below the intraday peak of 9,502 MW reached around 17:30 AEST during this morning's winter demand surge. That peak coincided with prices holding in the $79–$89/MWh band — a clear demand-price relationship where each step up through the 9,000–9,500 MW range added roughly $5–10/MWh to the dispatch price. The subsequent demand pullback through the afternoon and into Saturday evening has unwound that premium, with prices tracking back toward the $40–$56/MWh range as demand retreated through the 7,000–7,500 MW zone. At 100% cloud cover and 12.9°C with a heating demand index of 5.1, today's weather profile is consistent with sustained but moderate winter overnight load rather than a sharp residential spike.

The forecast trajectory for today points to a pronounced low-price trough through the overnight period before a decisive morning ramp. Prices are forecast to slide from $56/MWh now to a floor of $8.73/MWh at 14:30 AEST and $11.30/MWh across 15:30–16:00 AEST, consistent with Saturday low demand and wind generation currently contributing 1,145 MW. From there, the price curve lifts sharply into the morning peak window: $81.94/MWh by 16:00 AEST, climbing to a forecast ceiling of $97.67/MWh at 23:00–23:30 AEST as weekday demand returns and winter morning heating load builds. The step from sub-$25/MWh overnight to near-$90/MWh by 07:30 AEST represents the sharpest demand-price inflection in today's profile.

Demand-side context from market notices is relatively contained for NSW directly, though two intervals around 13:00–13:05 AEST (03:00–03:05 UTC) remain subject to AEMO review under Clause 3.9.2B for manifestly incorrect inputs — the 02:40 interval has since been confirmed unchanged. Traders should note that the $111/MWh spike recorded at 11:35 AEST during an otherwise $46–$57/MWh overnight window is the type of outlier that triggers these reviews; confirmed prices hold. The generation mix at 06:30 AEST — black coal 4,308 MW, wind 1,145 MW, hydro 449 MW, battery 163 MW, solar 169 MW, OCGT 46 MW — positions the grid to absorb the morning demand ramp without material constraint, provided wind output holds near current levels. Carbon intensity has improved to 0.6085 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 30.66%, up from a daytime low around 19% during the high-demand morning window.