Commodity Demand — NSW1: Thursday 23 July 2026

NSW spot price sits at $68.16/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 9,557 MW, up from a 6,895 MW overnight trough around 04:50-05:00 AEST when prices briefly turned negative (-$1.21/MWh at 05:15). The current 06:30 read is part of the morning ramp, with demand climbing roughly 2,660 MW from trough over the past 90 minutes as heating load builds — current temperature is 6.7°C with 11.3 heating-demand-index and effectively zero solar potential at this hour, consistent with the observed price-demand coupling.

Price sensitivity to demand is pronounced this morning: yesterday's equivalent ramp saw demand climb from 8,265 MW to 10,832 MW between 06:05 and 08:55 AEST, dragging prices from $43/MWh to a sustained $75-87/MWh band, with a spike to $86.97/MWh at 06:45 AEST when demand growth outpaced dispatchable ramp rates. Expect a similar pattern today given comparable overnight demand levels and cold morning temperatures (6.5-6.7°C range).

AEMO's forecast trajectory points to a much sharper price response than typical for today's demand build. Forecast RRP jumps from $72.83/MWh at 07:00 AEST to $96.52/MWh by 08:00 AEST, holding in the $93-98/MWh band through until 11:30 AEST before easing to $83.99/MWh at midday and settling into the $60-68/MWh range through the afternoon. This morning peak is materially higher than yesterday's equivalent 08:00-09:00 AEST prices ($71-80/MWh), suggesting tighter supply margins or higher opening demand feeding into the forecast. Overnight low-demand periods before 06:00 AEST carry very low forecast prices ($10-24/MWh), reflecting the 2-5am trough that dropped as low as 6,761 MW yesterday.

Generation mix at the last interval shows black coal supplying 6,383 MW (the dominant source), wind at 1,205 MW, hydro at 949 MW, battery discharging 132 MW, and solar at 115 MW (pre-dawn, minimal output). Renewable penetration sits at 27.2% with carbon intensity at 0.640 tCO2/MWh. No NSW-specific demand-side notices are active today; the