Commodity Demand — NSW1: Monday 27 July 2026

NSW demand sits at 9,295 MW as of 06:30 AEST, up sharply from an overnight low of 6,990 MW around 02:45 and climbing into the morning ramp. Spot price is $97.55/MWh, holding at that level for the past four intervals after easing from a $299.99/MWh spike at 18:15 AEST yesterday evening. The data shows tight price sensitivity to demand once load pushes above roughly 9,500 MW: yesterday's evening peak of 10,657 MW at 21:25 AEST coincided with prices ranging $170-$312/MWh, while this morning's climb through 10,795 MW at 18:00 AEST (UTC) produced a $230.59-$299.99/MWh spike. Below 8,500 MW, prices consistently settle in the $60-$95/MWh band, confirming demand is the dominant short-run price driver today.

AEMO's forecast trajectory points to a firming price profile through the morning, rising from $97.63/MWh at 07:00 AEST to a local peak of $117.80/MWh by 08:30 AEST as the morning demand ramp continues, before easing to $69.99-$112.78/MWh through midday and early afternoon. A second, sharper lift is forecast into tonight's evening peak, with prices climbing from $84.04/MWh at 12:30 to $134.29/MWh by 11:00 AEST target time, consistent with the pattern seen in yesterday's evening ramp where demand crossed 10,000 MW and prices repeatedly cleared $200/MWh. Overnight prices are forecast to fall into negative territory ($-2/MWh at 05:30 AEST tomorrow) as demand drops toward 7,000 MW and wind/rooftop solar erode net load.

Current generation mix shows black coal supplying 6,159.89 MW against total generation of ~8,000 MW, with wind at 814.48 MW and battery output of 290.72 MW providing marginal supply during the ramp. Carbon intensity has eased to 0.6807 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 22.53%, down from an overnight peak of 34.8% at 01:00 AEST when demand and price were both lowest. No NSW-specific demand-side notices are active; however, the cancelled NRM_NSW1_VIC1 negative residue constraint (ceased 19:10 AEST yesterday) indicates interconn