Commodity Demand — NSW1: Sunday 26 July 2026

NSW demand sits at 9,445 MW as of 06:30 AEST, up sharply from the overnight trough of around 6,150 MW at 02:45-03:00. Spot price is $133.10/MWh, tracking the steep morning ramp that has pushed demand up roughly 1,400 MW in the last hour alone. The price-demand relationship this morning is tight: as load climbed from 7,300 MW at 06:00 to 9,445 MW by 06:30, price nearly doubled from $84.79/MWh to $133.10/MWh, reflecting the market moving up the supply stack as black coal (currently 6,976 MW) and hydro (1,178 MW) ramp to cover the load, with battery output (568 MW) supplementing the peak.

The forecast trajectory points to a sharp price escalation ahead. AEMO's projections show forecast RRP jumping to $404.58/MWh by 08:00, then holding in a $220-330/MWh band through the late morning peak (08:30-11:30), before easing back to double digits by early afternoon and falling into the $80-100/MWh range through the evening. This pattern is consistent with the current 7.6°C morning temperature and heating demand reading of 10.4 — cold-driven load is compounding with limited solar potential (near zero pre-08:00) to tighten the supply-demand balance during the breakfast peak. Traders should watch the 07:30-11:30 window closely given the forecast volatility, with the $300+/MWh prints implying thin reserve margins rather than any single large outage.

No NSW-specific demand-side notices are active today — the operational notices in the queue relate to SA reserve conditions (LOR2 cancelled for 29 July) and a QLD non-conformance event, neither of which directly affect NSW load-price dynamics. Demand is expected to ease into the afternoon trough (typically 7,300-8,000 MW based on yesterday's pattern) before a secondary evening peak forms around 19:00-20:30 AEST as heating load returns after sunset, likely lifting prices back into the $110-130/MWh band based on last night's comparable period.