Carbon Forecast: Friday 12 June 2026

At 06:30 AEST, NEM-wide carbon intensity spans a wide range across the five regions. Tasmania sits at 0.00 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable generation — hydro (595 MW) and wind (389 MW) covering the entire state load. South Australia is next at 0.02 tCO2/MWh with 96.4% renewables, driven by 1,110 MW of wind and only a trace 0.11 MW of gas OCGT online. Victoria sits at 0.62 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 49.0%, where 2,941 MW of wind is running alongside 3,062 MW of brown coal. NSW is at 0.61 tCO2/MWh with 30.7% renewables — 4,308 MW of black coal dominates the stack, with wind (1,145 MW), hydro (449 MW), and solar (169 MW) providing the remainder. Queensland is the highest at 0.65 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 24.7%, its grid anchored by 4,179 MW of black coal and 284 MW of gas OCGT, partially offset by 1,235 MW of wind.

The intraday pattern visible in the NSW and Queensland data is instructive for carbon-sensitive scheduling. Both regions show a consistent overnight trough in intensity — NSW reached a low of around 0.50 tCO2/MWh between 00:30 and 05:30 AEST, with renewables peaking above 42%, before demand ramp-up pushed intensity back above 0.60 tCO2/MWh through the morning. Queensland followed a similar arc, touching 0.47 tCO2/MWh near midnight before climbing back toward 0.65 tCO2/MWh through the business day. Victoria has been more stable, oscillating between 0.57 and 0.66 tCO2/MWh throughout the period, with wind output sustaining roughly 47–53% penetration consistently. SA has held near-static below 0.03 tCO2/MWh across the entire dataset, driven by persistent strong wind.

For carbon-sensitive loads today, the next green window opportunity in NSW and Queensland is the overnight period from approximately 22:00 through to 06:00 AEST Sunday, when thermal dispatch eases and renewable fractions historically climb back above 40% in both regions. SA and Tasmania offer effectively continuous low-intensity access at current conditions, with SA's only meaningful intensity uptick observed in the pre-dawn window around 01:00–06:00 AEST when wind occasionally softens and gas OCGT has stepped in marginally. VIC's intensity trajectory through the rest of today is likely to remain in the 0.60–0.64 tCO2/MWh band given stable wind output and brown coal baseload running flat — no discrete green window is expected in that region absent a significant wind step-change. Organisations with flexibility to time loads or charge batteries should prioritise SA and Tasmania at any hour, and target post-22:00 AEST intervals in NSW and QLD for the lowest carbon outcomes on the mainland eastern seaboard.