Regional Outlook — NSW1: Thursday 11 June 2026
The NSW spot price sits at $80/MWh against a total demand of 8,039 MW at 06:25 AEST, a material step down from the evening peak prices that ran between $125–$200/MWh during the 07:00–09:00 AEST window earlier this morning. The 24-hour price history shows a clear overnight trough in the $61–$98/MWh range between approximately 13:00 and 04:00 AEST, a morning ramp peaking above $126/MWh at 06:35 AEST, and a gradual retreat through the mid-morning as demand eased from its 9,785 MW peak back toward current levels. The current $80/MWh print reflects a market settling into a mid-morning equilibrium.
The generation mix at the most recent interval (05:55 AEST) totals approximately 6,218 MW from metered sources. Black coal dominates at 5,092 MW (82% of metered output), with hydro contributing 452 MW (7.3%), wind 308 MW (5.0%), gas OCGT 252 MW (4.0%), and solar 113 MW (1.8%). Battery dispatch is negligible at 0.08 MW, and gas CCGT is offline. Renewable penetration — wind, solar, and hydro combined — sits at 14.05% per the latest carbon data, a significant contraction from the 27–34% range recorded during the overnight and early-morning hours when demand was lower and wind output was stronger. Carbon intensity is currently 0.747 tCO2/MWh, up sharply from the 0.57–0.62 tCO2/MWh levels seen overnight, reflecting the reduced renewable share as solar remains limited this winter morning with 41% cloud cover and a temperature of 12.6°C.
The predispatch forecast shows prices holding near $80–$103/MWh through to 08:00 AEST, then a notable dip into the $40–$60/MWh range from 10:30–15:00 AEST — with the sharpest trough forecast at $23.96/MWh around 14:30 AEST (00:30 UTC). This mid-afternoon softening aligns with reduced winter heating demand and modest solar contributions on what is expected to be a partly cloudy day with a forecast maximum of 18.8°C. Prices are then expected to recover to the $64–$105/MWh range through the morning demand ramp (15:30–18:00 AEST), before easing again toward $54/MWh by 04:00 AEST tomorrow. The deepest overnight windows — 14:30, 04:00, and 04:30 AEST — represent the strongest price-response opportunities for flexible loads and battery operators.
On market notices, the active inter-regional transfer notice (MN 144238) remains in force, with constraint set CA_BRIS_593C7214 invoked on the N-Q-MNSP1 interconnector to maintain power system security in Queensland — this limits northward flow capacity from NSW and is a factor to watch if NSW supply surpluses build during the midday trough. The Kerang–Koorangie 220 kV line outage in Victoria (MN 144217) continues to constrain the VIC1-NSW1 interconnector