Regional Outlook — NSW1: Friday 17 July 2026
NSW1 spot price sits at $123.99/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, sitting near the top of a band that has held between $110-140/MWh since the evening peak began building from 16:00. Demand is at 8,042 MW, down from the 10,700 MW peak recorded around 17:40-18:00 AEST yesterday evening but still elevated versus the overnight trough of ~8,200 MW. Prices have been remarkably sticky at the $123.99/MWh price cap-adjacent level for extended stretches through the evening, indicating tight supply-demand balance rather than a single price spike.
Generation mix is dominated by black coal at 5,759 MW, supplying the bulk of NSW1 load. Hydro contributes 940 MW, wind 358 MW, batteries are discharging at 193 MW, and gas OCGT adds a marginal 43 MW. Solar output is negligible at this hour as expected overnight. Renewable penetration sits at 20.45%, down from an overnight high near 38% recorded around 00:00-01:30 AEST when wind and hydro carried a larger share of load. Carbon intensity is 0.6987 tCO2/MWh, up from the overnight low of 0.5437 tCO2/MWh — the increase tracks the declining renewable share as coal generation fills the gap left by fading wind output through the evening ramp.
Predispatch forecasts show prices easing sharply overnight: $120-127/MWh through 21:00-22:00 AEST, then a steep drop to the $42-45/MWh range from 22:30 AEST through to 06:00 tomorrow morning, consistent with the low-demand overnight window. Prices are forecast to climb again from 06:30 AEST (Saturday), reaching $91-103/MWh through the 07:00-08:00 morning ramp, before settling into a $97-98/MWh band through midday and early afternoon. Five low-carbon, low-cost load-shifting windows are flagged between 01:00-06:00 AEST tomorrow, each averaging $38-44/MWh with zero measured carbon intensity in the forecast window — the strongest being 04:00-05:00 AEST at $38.33/MWh, a $88.34/MWh saving versus today's peak.
Active market notices for NSW1 include two inter-regional transfer limit variations, both now resolved: the Directlink interconnector (all three cables) returned to service at