Regional Outlook — NSW1: Friday 28 August 2026
NSW spot price sits at $115.11/MWh as at 06:30 AEST, tracking above the overnight average after climbing from sub-$30/MWh troughs between 12:30-16:00 AEST (early hours) to a peak near $133.78/MWh around 17:20 AEST yesterday evening. Demand currently reads 7,582 MW, up from a low near 4,717 MW overnight but well below yesterday's evening peak of 9,477 MW. Prices have compressed through the day, settling in the $90-120/MWh band through the afternoon and evening trading window, consistent with typical winter demand-driven volatility rather than any supply shock.
Generation mix is dominated by black coal at 5,468 MW, or roughly 73% of the 6,922 MW total scheduled output captured in the latest interval. Hydro contributes 877 MW, wind 462 MW, batteries 48 MW, gas OCGT 51 MW, and solar just 15 MW — reflecting the overnight/early-morning timing of this snapshot with minimal photovoltaic output. Renewable penetration sits at 20.26%, near the low end of today's range; it peaked above 56% around 03:30-04:30 AEST overnight when wind and hydro carried a larger share of a much smaller demand base, and has fallen steadily as coal ramped to meet the morning demand climb.
Carbon intensity currently reads 0.70 tCO2/MWh, up from an overnight low of 0.378 tCO2/MWh at 03:30 AEST. Intensity has trended higher through the day in step with rising demand and coal's growing share of dispatch, peaking near 0.757 tCO2/MWh around 17:00 AEST before easing slightly into the evening. Predispatch forecasts show prices retreating sharply through the coming overnight period, with forecast RRP dropping to $29.21/MWh by 08:00 AEST and turning negative (-$7.13/MWh) around 14:30 AEST tomorrow morning as wind and hydro generation outpace low overnight demand. Prices are then forecast to recover through tomorrow morning, reaching $111.98/MWh by 18:30 AEST as demand rebuilds — a pattern that flags five discrete low-price/low-carbon load-shifting windows between 01:00-06:30 AEST tomorrow, each offering $117-126/MWh savings versus current peak pricing.
No NSW-specific market interventions or directions are currently active. The Bayswater-Wollar 5A4 500kV line planned outage completed and returned to service on 27 August, removing its associated constraint set. Two reclassified contingency events on NSW 500kV lines (Bayswater-Mt Piper and Wollar-Mt Piper, both lightning-related) were cancelled on 26 August with no lasting constraints. The only other NSW-relevant notice is a historical non-conformance flag for GESF1 (154 MW) from 26 August, now closed out. No current AEMO interventions, directions, or minimum system load warnings apply to NSW1 today — all active MSL and intervention notices relate to SA and QLD.