Regional Outlook — NSW1: Thursday 27 August 2026
NSW spot price sits at $95.20/MWh as of 06:25 AEST, well down from last night's evening peak that touched $299.98/MWh between 06:35-06:45pm. Demand currently sits at 8,645 MW, climbing through the morning ramp after an overnight trough near 5,900-6,100 MW when prices briefly dipped negative (-$1.20/MWh at 3:10pm AEST yesterday, and zero-priced intervals around 3:15-3:20pm). The 24-hour trend shows classic morning demand build: prices bottomed around $10-30/MWh in the pre-dawn low-demand window (04:00-05:25am AEST) before climbing sharply through the 6-9am ramp, peaking near $170-200/MWh around 8-9am and again near midday ($200-202/MWh at 12:20-12:25pm).
Generation mix at the current 20:00 UTC (06:00am AEST) interval is dominated by black coal at 5,969.6 MW, with hydro contributing 736.4 MW, wind at 312.0 MW, battery output at 61.2 MW, gas OCGT at 25.6 MW, and solar effectively at zero given pre-dawn conditions. Renewable penetration sits at 15.62%, down sharply from the overnight peak of 53.13% recorded around 3:30am AEST when wind and hydro carried a much larger share of load. Carbon intensity has risen accordingly to 0.7417 tCO2/MWh, up from lows of 0.412 tCO2/MWh overnight — this diurnal swing reflects coal's higher relative share as solar drops out overnight and wind generation eases.
Predispatch forecasts show prices holding in the $90-145/MWh band through today's daytime peak, with a notable spike to $140.44/MWh forecast for 9:30am AEST and $144.70/MWh around 11:30am AEST, before easing to $84.79/MWh by 6pm AEST tonight. Overnight tonight into Saturday, forecasts turn negative again, with prices as low as -$7.27/MWh around 5am AEST Saturday — consistent with the load-shifting windows identified between 1:30am-6:30am AEST offering savings up to $149/MWh versus peak. Cloud cover sits at 100% currently with solar potential at zero, tapering wind potential to just 7 km/h, though today's daily outlook shows improving solar potential (25.4% average) as cloud clears to 32%.
On notices, the Bayswater-Wollar 5A4 500kV line returned to service yesterday at 3:40pm AEST after a planned outage, removing the associated constraint set. No other active NSW-specific transmission or generation notices are currently affecting the region; recent market intervention and MSL activity has been concentrated in SA. Traders should watch the 9-11am AEST window for renewed price volatility given the $121-145/MWh forecast band, and note the strong negative-price opportunity building for tonight's overnight trough.