Carbon Forecast: Thursday 11 June 2026

At 06:30 AEST, NEM-wide carbon intensity spans a wide range across regions. Tasmania sits at 0.00 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable penetration, driven entirely by hydro (889 MW) and wind (190 MW). South Australia is at 0.01 tCO2/MWh with 97.91% renewables — wind is generating 1,883 MW against just 40 MW of gas CCGT and a negligible 0.11 MW of gas OCGT. Victoria sits at 0.62 tCO2/MWh with 49.42% renewables; wind at 3,110 MW is running neck-and-neck with brown coal at 3,233 MW, which is keeping intensity elevated relative to SA and TAS despite strong wind output. Queensland is at 0.65 tCO2/MWh with 22.89% renewables, where black coal (4,760 MW) and gas OCGT (775 MW) dominate the mix, with wind contributing 1,267 MW and batteries discharging 241 MW. NSW is the highest-intensity region at 0.73 tCO2/MWh with only 15.8% renewables; black coal carries 5,251 MW and gas OCGT 354 MW, while wind (335 MW), hydro (603 MW), and solar (114 MW) provide limited offset at this hour.

The trajectory through today reflects a winter Friday profile — no meaningful solar ramp is expected in any region given June day lengths and the data showing solar already at or near zero in VIC and SA. SA and TAS have maintained near-zero intensity consistently across the full dataset and will continue to do so through the day; SA's wind resource is sustaining above 97% renewable penetration and shows no sign of dropping. Victoria's intensity has been trending down from above 1.00 tCO2/MWh in the overnight period to its current 0.62 tCO2/MWh, driven by increasing wind output, and that improvement is likely to hold into the evening as wind generation remains strong. NSW and QLD show no comparable improvement signal — NSW intensity has actually risen from ~0.57 tCO2/MWh in the early hours to 0.73 tCO2/MWh now as coal dispatch increased into the morning demand ramp, and QLD has held a narrow 0.62–0.68 tCO2/MWh band all day.

For carbon-sensitive loads, the optimal dispatch windows today are clear: SA and TAS offer effectively zero-emission grid supply right now and through the remainder of the day. Operators with flexible loads in those regions — EV charging, industrial process loads, electrolysers, or demand response assets — are in the best position to schedule consumption immediately and hold it through the afternoon. Victorian loads benefit from the current wind-driven improvement and the lowest-intensity window in that region is now, with intensity at its best level for the dataset at 0.62 tCO2/MWh. NSW and QLD carbon-sensitive loads have no near-term green window visible in today's data; consumption deferral or offsetting via interstate interconnector scheduling where feasible is the more productive lever for those regions through the rest of today.