Carbon Forecast: Wednesday 10 June 2026

NEM carbon intensity at 06:25 AEST sits at opposite ends of the spectrum across the five regions. Tasmania is effectively zero-emissions at 0.02 tCO2/MWh with 96% renewable penetration — hydro at 1,448 MW and wind at 103 MW account for nearly all generation, with a small gas OCGT contribution explaining the marginal non-zero reading. South Australia is next at 0.36 tCO2/MWh with 37% renewables; wind (252 MW) and battery discharge (281 MW) are tempering gas OCGT (433 MW) and CCGT (493 MW) output. NSW sits at 0.67 tCO2/MWh with renewables at just 20% — black coal dominates at 5,592 MW against hydro at 1,316 MW and gas OCGT at 699 MW, with wind contributing only 124 MW. Queensland is at 0.72 tCO2/MWh with 16% renewables; black coal runs at 5,332 MW, gas OCGT at 735 MW, and wind at 880 MW provides the bulk of renewable output. Victoria is the highest on the NEM at 1.18 tCO2/MWh with renewables collapsed to just 2.93% — brown coal is carrying 4,737 MW with wind (66 MW), hydro (50 MW), and battery (27 MW) providing negligible offset and gas CCGT offline.

The trajectory through today's data tells a consistent winter morning story. Every mainland region reached its lowest intensity during the overnight period — NSW troughed near 0.52 tCO2/MWh around 11:30–12:30 AEST, SA was in the 0.03–0.13 tCO2/MWh range through the early hours when wind penetration was above 80%, and QLD reached sub-0.53 tCO2/MWh around 11:00 AEST. Since the morning demand ramp, all mainland regions have tracked higher or plateaued at elevated levels. Victoria's intensity has risen sharply and continuously from 0.53 tCO2/MWh at 07:00 AEST to its current 1.18 tCO2/MWh as brown coal output consolidated and renewables dropped — a pattern that shows no sign of reversing without a material wind shift.

For carbon-sensitive loads, the actionable windows are now largely behind us for today. The overnight-to-early-morning period (roughly 22:00–06:30 AEST) delivered the lowest intensities NEM-wide, driven by wind output peaking and demand in the trough. SA offered the best opportunity by a significant margin during that window, with intensity below 0.10 tCO2/MWh for several intervals. With solar output at or near zero across all regions (winter solstice conditions) and no forecast catalyst for wind to lift materially through the evening peak, intensity in NSW, QLD, and VIC is unlikely to improve ahead of tonight's demand ramp. Tasmania remains the exception — at 0.02 tCO2/MWh it is effectively open all day for low-carbon scheduling, subject to interconnector capacity from the mainland. Carbon-aware load managers in SA may see a modest improvement post-21:00 AEST tonight if wind recovers to overnight levels consistent with the pattern observed across this dataset.