Commodity Demand — SA1: Tuesday 9 June 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at -$0.09/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 1,499 MW — near the overnight trough. The price-demand relationship through the past 10 hours tells a clear story: as demand climbed from ~880 MW (the overnight low around 13:30 AEST) toward the morning peak of 2,054 MW at 18:25 AEST, prices moved from deeply negative territory (-$12.50/MWh at the nadir) through to a range of $8–$32/MWh at the demand peak, before collapsing back to near-zero as demand retreated. Wind is currently supplying 1,493 MW against total demand of 1,499 MW, with gas CCGT contributing 84 MW — the supply surplus at this demand level is what anchors prices at or below zero. The current 06:30 AEST demand level represents the bottom of the morning ramp-up; prices are behaviorally sensitive here, flipping positive once demand crosses roughly 1,600–1,650 MW based on today's observed thresholds.
The demand trajectory from here is the critical driver for today's price outlook. Demand is now rising from the overnight low and will push through the morning ramp toward what today's weather conditions — 14.4°C, heating demand of 3.6 kWh, 76% cloud cover, effectively zero solar potential — suggest will be a sustained winter weekday peak. The forecast is unambiguous: prices are expected to remain near zero or slightly negative through 07:30 AEST (forecast -$0.04/MWh), then step sharply to $9.88/MWh by 08:00 AEST and $103/MWh by 08:30 AEST as morning demand builds. From 09:30 AEST through to at least 03:00 AEST Thursday, forecasts run between $59 and $198/MWh, with the peak forecast of $198/MWh centred on the 19:30–20:00 AEST window. The morning ramp from 12:30 AEST onward sees forecasts escalate to $161–$171/MWh through the midday and afternoon period.
The most critical demand-side context for today is the active AEMO LOR2 reserve notice covering SA between 18:30 and 20:00 AEST (08:30–10:00 UTC), with the forecast capacity reserve requirement at 530 MW against a minimum available of 517 MW — a 13 MW margin. While a later notice cancelled an earlier, wider LOR2 window, notice 144213 remains active and points to tight reserves precisely during the period when demand is forecast to peak and spot prices are forecast at $170–$198/MWh. The Kerang–Koorangie 220 kV line outage (constraint set V-KGKO, active since 13:30 AEST) restricts V-SA interconnector capacity, reducing SA's ability to import from Victoria during that tight window and amplifying local price exposure. Demand response and flexible load operators should treat the 18:30–20:30 AEST window as the highest-risk period of the day; the combination of peak demand, constrained interconnector capacity, and a thin reserve margin creates the conditions for prices to test significantly above the $198/MWh forecast.