Commodity Demand — NSW1: Tuesday 9 June 2026

NSW spot price sits at $71.75/MWh with demand at 8,359 MW as of 06:30 AEST, well off the morning peak of 10,363 MW reached around 17:55 AEST and tracking upward through the pre-dawn heating load ramp that began near 05:00 AEST. The price-demand relationship across today's trading intervals is clearly defined: demand above 10,000 MW consistently attracted prices of $100–$111/MWh, while the mid-afternoon trough between 6,700–7,000 MW from 02:00–03:00 AEST corresponded to prices anchored at the $68–$72/MWh floor. The current 8,359 MW reading is mid-ramp in what has been a textbook winter evening demand climb — up from a low of 6,671 MW at 03:50 AEST — and prices are responding in step, lifting from the $61–$68/MWh range seen during the deep overnight trough.

The forecast profile signals a sharp acceleration from here. Prices are projected to move from $74/MWh at 07:00 AEST to $93/MWh by 07:00 AEST, then surge through $120/MWh at 05:30 AEST and peak at $148/MWh around 22:00 AEST as demand climbs into the evening heating peak. The window between 09:00–20:30 AEST sustains forecast prices consistently above $107/MWh, reflecting the extended mid-morning to afternoon demand plateau seen in today's pattern — demand held above 9,400 MW for roughly five hours between 17:30 and 22:30 AEST. Winter heating load is the primary driver: ambient temperature is 11.4°C with a heating demand index of 6.6 and minimal cooling offset.

One active market notice warrants attention for NSW price formation. The Kerang–Koorangie 220 kV line in Victoria suffered an unplanned outage at 13:25 AEST today, invoking constraint set V-KGKO which binds the VIC1-NSW1 interconnector on its left-hand side. With that constraint active, NSW cannot draw as freely on Victorian supply during the evening peak, tightening the NSW dispatch stack at precisely the period when demand is rising most steeply. Traders should treat the $120–$148/MWh forecast band for the 15:30–22:00 AEST window as a plausible base case rather than an upside scenario given this network limitation remains unresolved.

Carbon intensity currently reads 0.6424 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 26.92% of the mix — wind contributing 1,227 MW, hydro 656 MW, and solar 111 MW against a black coal base of 5,394 MW. As demand climbs through the evening peak and the VIC1-NSW1 constraint limits import headroom, the dispatch stack will draw on progressively higher-cost marginal plant, which aligns with both the price escalation forecast and the intensity profile seen earlier today when the 06:30–08:00 AEST demand peak pushed intensity to 0.69–0.69 tCO2/MWh.