Commodity Demand — NSW1: Monday 20 July 2026

NSW demand sits at 9,414 MW as of 06:25 AEST, up from an overnight trough near 6,540 MW around 04:00, with spot price at $112.78/MWh tracking the winter morning ramp. The relationship between demand and price is tight through this window: every ~1,000 MW of demand increase since 05:00 has driven price up roughly $20-30/MWh, consistent with gas and higher-cost black coal units being dispatched to cover the ramp. Black coal is providing 6,483 MW of the current mix, batteries are contributing 980 MW, and hydro 1,273 MW — combined these are covering the bulk of the morning peak as wind (295 MW) and solar (20 MW) remain minimal ahead of sunrise.

AEMO's forecast trajectory points to a stronger price response later this morning, with the 22:00 UTC (08:00 AEST) target showing $142.82/MWh before easing to $112.78/MWh by 08:30 AEST. This aligns with yesterday's actual pattern, where demand peaked near 10,600-10,630 MW between 08:00-08:35 AEST and prices held in the $112-118/MWh band. Today's morning peak is likely to follow a similar profile given comparable overnight demand troughs and current ramp rates — expect demand to push through 10,500 MW by mid-morning, with price sensitivity remaining elevated until solar generation ramps up materially after 09:00 AEST.

The evening peak carries the highest forecast price risk today, with AEMO's forward curve showing $142.82/MWh at the 22:00 UTC (08:00 AEST) interval and a secondary evening peak forecast at $121.10/MWh around 21:30 UTC (07:30 AEST). Demand-side conditions are otherwise clean — no active LOR notices or interventions are recorded for NSW today, though the Directlink interconnector outage (completed 17 July) and Murray-Upper Tumut line work (completed 16 July) indicate NSW's transmission network has had recent constraint activity that traders should note for basis risk on interconnector flows during today's peak.

Overnight, demand is forecast to fall to $44-45/MWh territory between 00:00-01:00 AEST tomorrow as demand drops toward the 6,500-7,000 MW range, consistent with the identified low-price windows for load-shifting between 00:00-06:30 AEST —